733 
FXUS65 KPSR 090433
AFDPSR
AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-091045-

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 
930 PM MST SUN SEP 8 2002

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS 
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND FAR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS...WITH SOME DRYING EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA LATE 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...WEAK UPPER LEVEL 
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE TOWARDS ARIZONA DURING THIS TIME...GIVING A 
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A DRIER WESTERLY 
FLOW WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...
PROVIDING A RESPITE FROM OUR STORMINESS. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL 
RANGE MOSTLY NEAR THE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS. 

.DISCUSSION...
IT DOESNT GET ANY WETTER THAN THE 00Z KPSR SOUNDING...WITH PWATER A 
HAIR UNDER 2 INCHES. THE BATCH OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED TODAY WERE 
MUCH LESS COVERAGE-WISE THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...DUE MAINLY TO THE 
COOL...STABLE LOWER LEVELS THAT WERE MAINTAINED WITH ALL THE CLOUD 
COVER. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME WEAK JET DYNAMICS 
ACTING ON THE AIRMASS TONIGHT...WE PROBABLY HAVE POPS A BIT TOO 
HIGH. WILL THEREFORE TRIM THEM BACK INTO THE SCATTERED CATEGORY AND 
WORD THE FORECASTS SOMETHING ALONG THE LINES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS 
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE 
FORECASTS APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH 
TOMORROW MOST PLACES...AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN AND MOST 
PLACES WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE SUNSHINE TO GET THE BOILING POT GOING. 
MEANWHILE...IT IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR THAT TUESDAY MAY BE A RATHER 
INTERESTING DAY AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE UP INTO THE 
REGION. ONE OF THESE IS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 E. 
THE OTHER IS THE HANG BACK LOW NOW OFF NRN BAJA THAT WILL BE KICKED 
EWD BY A RATHER STRONG WESTERLY JET. THIS IS THE SHORTWAVE THAT 
CONCERNS US THE MOST...AS IT IS FORECAST TO ROTATE INTO THE STATE IN 
A DYNAMICAL NEGATIVE-TILT FASHION AND WILL BE INTERACTING WITH OUR 
UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS. COULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF DRYING AFTER 
THIS TROUGH MOVES THRU BY MIDWEEK. ANYWAY...FIRST PERIOD UPDATES OUT 
IN A BIT.    ESTLE

.PSR...NONE.