National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDPSR
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTC Found 2 products at the given pil and timestamp. Scroll down to see them all.
Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDPSR
Product Timestamp: 2002-08-12 11:45 UTC
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000 FXUS65 KPSR 121145 AFDPSR AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-121745- SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 445 AM MST MON AUG 12 2002 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM ARIZONA THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK ...KEEPING A RELATIVELY DRY NORTH FLOW OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FOR A LINGERING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER MIDWEEK...THE HIGH CENTER WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRY WEST FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND. .DISCUSSION... DESPITE THE GULF SURGE THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY...CONVECTION STRUGGLED DUE TO THE RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE 500 MB. EVEN NORTHWEST MEXICO WAS MUCH QUIETER. WITHOUT REINFOREMENT OF THE SURGE...THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT MORE AND MORE EACH DAY. INTERESTINGLY...THE MESOETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA SHOWED ADDITIONAL MOISTENING TAKING PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS BETWEEN 00Z MON AND 12Z MON. SURFACE DEW POINTS DONT REFLECT THIS. HOWEVER...YUM SEEMS TO HAVE A RESURGENCE IN THEIR DEW POINTS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CONVECTION OVER SONORA SENT OUT SOME OUTFLOW WHICH REACHED THE YUMA AREA. THE MESOETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME SLIGHT COOLING AT AND ABOVE 500 MB...BUT NOT MUCH. THEY DONT SHOW MUCH WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS AT ALL. THOUGH THE 500 MB HIGH CENTER MEANDERS WITH TIME...IT GENERALLY NEVER SETS UP IN A FAVORABLE POSITION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN MAINTAINS A REX TYPE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN NORTH AMERICA. THE TROUGHING IS KEEPING THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SHORT WAVES WILL BE BRUSHING NORTHERN ARIZONA. IF THESE PERTURBATIONS COOL THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ENOUGH AND IF THERE IS ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND...WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO GET A STORM TO POP OVER THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS WHICH MIGHT DRIFT INTO ZONE 24. THIS IS A LOT OF IFS WHICH ISNT SUFFICIENT TO INTRODUCE A STORM THREAT FOR ZONE 24 AT THIS TIME. IN THE EXTENDED...THE AVN/GFS SHOWS SOME RETROGRESSION OF THE TROUGHING WHICH LEADS TO LOWERING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES OVER OUR AREA. THUS THE GRADUAL COOLING TREND. .PSR...NONE.
000 FXUS65 KPSR 121325 CCA AFDPSR AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-121745- SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 445 AM MST MON AUG 12 2002 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM ARIZONA THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK...KEEPING A RELATIVELY DRY NORTH FLOW OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FOR A LINGERING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER MIDWEEK...THE HIGH CENTER WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRY WEST FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND. .DISCUSSION... DESPITE THE GULF SURGE THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY...CONVECTION STRUGGLED DUE TO THE RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE 500 MB. EVEN NORTHWEST MEXICO WAS MUCH QUIETER. WITHOUT REINFOREMENT OF THE SURGE...THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT MORE AND MORE EACH DAY. INTERESTINGLY...THE MESOETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA SHOWED ADDITIONAL MOISTENING TAKING PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS BETWEEN 00Z MON AND 12Z MON. SURFACE DEW POINTS DONT REFLECT THIS. HOWEVER...YUM SEEMS TO HAVE A RESURGENCE IN THEIR DEW POINTS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CONVECTION OVER SONORA SENT OUT SOME OUTFLOW WHICH REACHED THE YUMA AREA. THE MESOETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME SLIGHT COOLING AT AND ABOVE 500 MB...BUT NOT MUCH. THEY DONT SHOW MUCH WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS AT ALL. THOUGH THE 500 MB HIGH CENTER MEANDERS WITH TIME...IT GENERALLY NEVER SETS UP IN A FAVORABLE POSITION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN MAINTAINS A REX TYPE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN NORTH AMERICA. THE TROUGHING IS KEEPING THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SHORT WAVES WILL BE BRUSHING NORTHERN ARIZONA. IF THESE PERTURBATIONS COOL THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ENOUGH AND IF THERE IS ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND...WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO GET A STORM TO POP OVER THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS WHICH MIGHT DRIFT INTO ZONE 24. THIS IS A LOT OF IFS WHICH ISNT SUFFICIENT TO INTRODUCE A STORM THREAT FOR ZONE 24 AT THIS TIME. IN THE EXTENDED...THE AVN/GFS SHOWS SOME RETROGRESSION OF THE TROUGHING WHICH LEADS TO LOWERING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES OVER OUR AREA. THUS THE GRADUAL COOLING TREND. .PSR...NONE.