801 
FXUS65 KMSO 292014
AFDMSO

WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
213 PM MDT MON JUL 29 2002

CORRECTED TO INCLUDE LAKE WIND ADVISORY BELOW

.SHORT TERM...NOT MANY CHANGES IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FORECAST.
THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SWING TO SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY.
THE CURRENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...
PARTICULARLY THE GLACIER REGION. MOISTURE IS NOT DEEP IN THIS
FLOW...AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST WITH THE
UPPER JET AND SHALLOW SURFACE COOL FRONT THAT WILL GLIDE ACROSS
THE CWA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS FROM
MISSOULA NORTHWARD WITH THIS PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...THE
MOISTURE IS NOT TOO DEEP AND THE WINDS ALOFT ARE PRETTY STRONG (100
KT JET ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER). THEREFORE...HAVE ACCEPTED MORE OF
A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE SOLUTION. THE MAIN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE WINDS. LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS ALREADY UP FOR FLATHEAD LAKE...WITH
A GOOD CHANCE THAT ANOTHER ONE WILL BE ISSUED TOMORROW. THE FAIRLY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN WESTERN MONTANA...AND MID LEVEL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 30-40 KTS. WITH AFTERNOON CLEARING
TOMORROW...LOOK FOR ANOTHER DAY OF MIXING DOWN SOME OF THIS WIND.
THE FRONT WILL BE ALL OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY EVENING AND SKIES
SHOULD BE CLEARING. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH MAYBE SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING...
MAINLY IN THE BUTTE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE PRETTY QUIET...NO MORE WINDS
WITH MINOR SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING IN. THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INTO
WESTERN MONTANA...AND SHOULD SEE SOME WARM UP. AVN SEEMS A LITTLE
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ETA.

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE TOO COOL FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS. THEY
DID NOT PICK UP ON THE CLOUDS...MIXING JUST OFF THE SURFACE DUE TO
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. THIS KEPT MINS UP LAST NIGHT BY 10 OR MORE
DEGREES. WILL GO MUCH HIGHER THAN MOS MINS TONIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A
BIT COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT.  DICKSON

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT AROUND TO A
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON FRIDAY...AND EVEN MORE SO OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS THIS OCCURS...THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TRANSPORTING IN SOME OF THE
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
ELIDA.  WILL BEGIN SLOWLY SPREADING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE
SOUTHERN ZONES ON SATURDAY. MRF HOLDS OFF ON BRINGING IN UPPER LOW
(REMNANTS OF ELIDA) UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL INCREASE TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE UPPER
LOW IS MOVING OFF WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA...WILL
HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY SOUTH. KOLATA

.MSO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FLATHEAD LAKE IN MONTANA ZONE 3 FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...7-DAY SPOT TEMPS AND POPS...
LIB BBB 054/079 050/080 044/085 37000000
     BBBB 046/082 048/081 050/081 050/083 3900000300
FCA BBB 057/076 049/077 043/080 37000000
     BBUB 045/077 047/076 049/076 049/078 3900000300
POL BBB 064/076 058/076 053/079 37000000
     BBUB 048/076 050/075 054/075 054/077 3900001300
MSO BBB 058/082 051/081 045/083 37000000
     BBUB 047/081 049/080 051/080 051/082 3900001312
HMM BBB 059/081 052/080 046/083 37000000
     BBUB 048/081 050/080 052/080 052/082 3900001312
BTM BUU 045/078 047/075 041/079 37000000
     BEBB 043/076 045/075 047/075 047/077 3900011313
ORO UUU 059/087 057/085 054/088 37000000
     BBUB 056/087 058/086 059/086 059/088 3900001302
GRV UUU 053/083 051/080 047/084 37000000
     BBUB 049/083 051/082 052/082 052/084 3900001312
SMN UUU 048/084 049/081 045/084 37000000
     BEBB 048/082 050/081 052/081 052/083 3900011312