National Weather Service Raw Text Product

648 
FXUS64 KMAF 271917
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
217 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2002

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TX
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH PANHANDLES OF TX AND OK.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
NOT BROKEN IN THE MOUNTAINS IN OUR CWA YET...BUT HAVE OVER IN NEW
MEXICO.  IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
THE MOST PART ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. IT HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE OVER
OUR AREA...AND RETAINED ITS STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.

A WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE IS PREDICTED TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...GIVING SOUTHWEST TEXAS A BETTER CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION.
CONSIDERING THAT THIS DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE LAST FEW
RUNS IN MOST OF THE MODELS...AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT THAT
SOMETHING MIGHT HAPPEN AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH...GUIDANCE IS ALSO SPITTING OUT PRECIP AT THE PRESENT TIME
OVER NW NEW MEXICO...BUT THAT HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE.  WILL
PROBABLY LEAVE POPS AS THEY ARE.  MODELS ARE BRINGING A WEAK TROUGH
THROUGH THE AREA AND ADVERTISING RAIN AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT. WILL
PROBABLY LEAVE THE ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES AS THEY ARE IN MOST AREAS.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A 500MB LOW APPEARS TO HANG AROUND THE AREA
COMMANDING AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH
CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE EXTENDED...THE WEAK 500MB LOW MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY SHOULD
HANG AROUND GIVING THE AREA A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE CHANCES DIMINISHING BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.

THE PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE BELOW IS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY.
OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE CONTAINED WITHIN THE WEST TEXAS/SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO ZONE FORECAST.

MAF  074/096/073/097   1111
LSA  073/095/072/096   1111
6R6  074/097/075/098   0112
MRF  063/088/062/088   3232
CNM  074/098/072/098   2222

.MAF...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

SN