287 
FXUS64 KBMX 100818
AFDBHM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
316 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2002

...VERY MOIST PATTERN STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE...

LOOKS LIKE THE BERMUDA HIGH IS LOSING GROUND AS THE EAST COAST TROF
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.  SWRD MOVING FRONT WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT DOWN
INTO THE NRN ZONES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF SERLY MOVING
LOW.  THE APPROACHING LOW...CURRENTLY OVER ND...WILL MOVE DOWN AND
TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...IN THE SHORT-TERM...
CAUSING THE FRONT TO STALL OUT AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.  EXPECTING GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN AND
CENTRAL AL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A RESULT.

EXTENDED IS A LITTLE PERPLEXING AT THE MOMENT WITH LOTS OF
VARIABLES.  ON SATURDAY IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE TROF OVER THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL DEEPEN TO NEAR THE WRN GULF COASTAL BEND.  TWO
CONCERNS WITH THIS...UPPER-LEVEL LOW ON THE E COAST OF FL IS
CURRENTLY STARTING TO REFLECT DOWN TO THE SFC.  OTHER IS LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IN CENTRAL GULF HAS A BROAD CLOSED LOW WITH SOME
CONVECTION STARTING TO FIRE AROUND IT.  DO NOT REALLY KNOW HOW LONG
EITHER OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HANG AROUND IN THE GULF...BUT I DO
BELIEVE THEY WILL DRIFT TO THE WEST FOR AWHILE AND GET ABSORBED.
THAT TRANSLATES INTO A WET WEEKEND FOR GOOD OLE ALABAMA.  FOR NOW...
NOT GOING TO STICK MY NECK OUT TOO FAR...IN THE EXTENDED.  I WILL LET
THE NEXT SHIFT DO THAT ONE.


THANKS AGAIN TO MOB AND JAN WITH THE COORDINATION.


HSV EC 093/071 087/070 086 90355
BHM BC 091/072 088/072 087 90344
MGM BE 093/072 090/073 090 90233


.BHM...NONE.

JONES/90