000 
FXUS65 KPSR 061647
AFDPSR
AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-062245-

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
945 AM MST SAT JUL 6 2002

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL ENSURE HOTTER TEMPERATURES FOR THE DESERTS 
TODAY AND SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY AND THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK...THE HIGH 
WILL HELP TO FEED MOISTURE INTO MAINLY THE ARIZONA PORTION OF THE 
FORECAST REGION...WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH BLOWING DUST IN THE DESERTS. 
BY LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY...THE MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT MAY PUSH ALL THE WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA DESERTS. 
AFTER HOT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND...MAXIMUMS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER 
OFF TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT WEEK. 

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE DESERT SW...WITH 591 
HGTS OVER SRN AZ. UPPER TROF OFF THE PAC NW COAST GIVING A SWLY FLOW 
INTO MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S...AND THIS IS HELPING BUILD THE RIDGE. 
WINDS AT MOST LEVELS STILL HAVE A WLY COMPONENT...KEEPING THE 
MOISTURE AT BAY FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS AT PHX 
ONLY AROUND 2 THIS MORNING...THO THEY WERE 6 AT TUS. SFC DEWPOINTS 
ACROSS THE CWA LARGELY IN THE 40S...SO THEY ARE CREEPING UP. IR 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE STATE...WITH 
JUST SOME PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING IN FROM THE SW. LATEST 
PROGS CONTINUE TO BUILD THE RIDGE TODAY...AND KEEP A RATHER DRY AND 
STABLE AIRMASS OVER US FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE RIDGE CONTINUES 
TO BUILD THRU TOMORROW WITH SKIES TO STAY MOSTLY SUNNY. UPPER LOW 
OVER NM...SEEN NICELY IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TRIES TO WORK WWD 
TOMORROW AND INTO FAR ERN AZ...BUT THE RATHER STRONG TROFFING MOVING 
INTO THE PAC NW SHOULD PREVENT THE UPPER HIGH FROM BUILDING TOO FAR 
WESTWARD...AND SHOULD KEEP THIS ADVANCING WAVE AT BAY. FEEL WE WILL 
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS IN ZONE 24 SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY PARE BACK THE WEATHER CHANCES FOR OUR ERN 
CWA SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HAVE NOT SEEN AVN YET...BUT LATEST ETA JUST 
TOO DRY AND STABLE OVER MOST OF THE STATE TOMORROW TO ALLOW MUCH TO 
HAPPEN IN OUR CWA. EVEN THE 2 DAY CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...VALID FROM 
SUN MORNING THRU MON MORNING...KEEPS THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINE 
RIGHT ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER. FEEL THAT MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE BE THE 
DAY WHEN THE WEATHER PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST. UPPER TROF MOVING INTO 
THE PAC NW WILL LIFT INLAND AND ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BULGE WESTWARD 
ALLOWING A PRONOUCED ELY FLOW TO SET IN OVER MOST OF THE STATE. IN 
ADDITION..THE INVERTED TROF/LOW OVER NM THEN WORKS WEST INTO ERN AZ 
GIVING GOOD DYNAMICS TO OUR ERN ZONES. WITH THE STRONG ELY FLOW 
SETTING IN...THIS SHOULD PUSH SIGNIFICANT MONSOON MOISTURE INTO OUR 
AREA...AND WITH THE AID OF DYNAMICS FROM THE APPROACHING LOW...WILL 
DEFINITLY HAVE A CHANCE FOR STORMS OVER OUR ERN ZONES MONDAY 
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS IS IN THE FORECAST AND LOOKS GOOD. NO 
CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY THO...AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES 
WILL WORK WELL.  11

.PSR...NONE.