AFOS product AFDPSR
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Product Timestamp: 2002-07-01 04:10 UTC

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FXUS65 KPSR 010413
AFDPSR
AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-011045-

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
910 PM MST SUN JUN 30 2002

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. ENOUGH 
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN ARIZONA MOUNTAINS FOR A 
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE 
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND A 
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTH 
CENTRAL ARIZONA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES 
ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND. 

.DISCUSSION...
PRETTY QUIET EVENING AROUND THE CWFA. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS 
INDICATE THAT UPPER CLOSED LOW OFF NRN BAJA IS BEGINNING TO PULL MID 
LEVEL MOISTURE UP OUR WAY FROM NRN MEXICO. ALSO APPEARS CLOUDS ARE 
DEVELOPING OVER SRN GILA COUNTY AS WELL. LOOKING AT LATEST 00Z MODEL 
RH PROGS...ALL ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT THAT WE WILL INDEED BE 
UNDERGOING SOME TYPE OF A MID CLOUD INCREASE TONIGHT AND EARLY 
MONDAY. CURRENT FORECASTS SIMPLY STATING MOSTLY CLEAR...WHICH 
PROBABLY IS UNDERDONE. WILL GO AHEAD AND UPDATE AZ ZONES TO CALL FOR 
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. STILL 
PRECIOUS FEW PROMISING SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
INCREASE ON THE IMMEDIATE HORIZON. 00Z MAZATLAN SOUNDING ONLY 
CONTAINS 1.39 IN PWATER...VERY WIMPY FOR THIS TIME OF SEASON...WITH 
GUAYMAS THIS MORNING NOT MUCH BETTER. AND...NOT MUCH CONVECTION AT 
ALL TODAY OVER CHIHUAHUA...NOTHING OVER SONORA. SO...WE WILL JUST 
HAVE TO SIT TIGHT AND WAIT FOR MORE PROMISING SIGNATURES TO BEGIN 
DEVELOPING TO OUR S OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. 

IN THE MEANTIME...AS MENTIONS ABOVE...WILL UPDATE FORECASTS TO 
INSERT MORE CLOUDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL OPT TO LEAVE SLIGHT 
CHANCE OF TSTMS IN ZONE 24 TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH WISH DAY SHIFT WOULD 
HAVE GONE 10 PCT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP AT MOST...AS ANY 
STORMS WOULD LAY DOWN PRECIOUS LITTLE RAIN. WILL LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT 
MULL THIS OVER. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS PROBABLY IN THE BALLPARK...
ALTHOUGH IF WE HAVE TOO MANY MORE CLOUDS AROUND TOMORROW...WE MAY BE 
FORECASTING THINGS A BIT TOO TOASTY.  ESTLE

.PSR...NONE.