National Weather Service Raw Text Product

000 
FXUS66 KPQR 290347
AFDPQR

NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 PM PDT FRI JUN 28 2002

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTED BY A 140 KNOT
JET STREAM WAS MOVING ONSHORE INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE CASCADES BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL EASE SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. ANOTHER WEAKER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE JUST OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST NEXT WEEK FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...COASTAL BUOYS AND OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE INCOMING
STRONG FRONT IS JUST OFF ASTORIA AND THAT WE SHOULD GET A FRONTAL
PASSAGE BY 10 PM NEAR ASTORIA. THE PORTLAND AREA WILL BE A BIT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE FRONT CLEARING THE SOUTHERN AREAS TOWARD MORNING.
THE ETA MODEL SHOWS AN 140 KNOT JET WITH THIS SYSTEM. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES EXCEED 1.5 INCHES. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF 1 TO 2
INCHES AT THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH 0.5 TO 1 INCH AMOUNTS
IN THE VALLEYS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. WHILE THE INITIAL BATCH OF
HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED NORTH UNDER THE OVERRUNNING AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
OF THE JET...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING
ANOTHER BATCH MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL COAST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER VORTICITY RIPPLES SEEN IN MODELS AND IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY
THAT KEEP THE FRONT ENERGIZED OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS DECREASE SATURDAY AS THE CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES WELL EAST AND A
VERY FLAT UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO OUR AREA. A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN
AS WELL. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS THE CURRENTLY THE OPEN WAVE ALONG 140N
OUT NEAR 160W. 18Z AND 00Z MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON THIS
SYSTEM...BUT DO BRUSH OUR AREA WITH SOME CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
MAINLY SUNDAY. WILL EASE POPS DOWN A BIT. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE AN IN
BETWEEN DAY AFTER THE SUNDAY SYSTEM AND BEFORE THE NEXT LOW DEVELOPS
AND DROPS DOWN OFF THE COAST FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

WILL KEEP THE GALE WARNING FOR THE COAST FOR TONIGHT...THOUGH WINDS
WILL LIKELY EASE IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SEAS
WILL BE ABOVE 10 FEET TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGE FOR NOW. AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST AND SHOULD AFFECT US THROUGH MID WEEK. TOLLESON

AST +45631  PDX +42431  SLE +42321  EUG 941321

.PQR...GALE WARNING CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE.