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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDJAX Product Timestamp: 2002-06-16 18:28 UTC
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000 FXUS62 KJAX 161831 AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 228 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2002 QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL NORTH OF KSGJ-KGNV LINE. RAINFALL INDICATED BY DOPPLER RADARS OVER SOUTHERN MARION COUNTY. BROAD UPPER TROF CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A WEAK VORT MAX WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH A WEAK ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE AND PROXIMITY TO AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN-MOST ZONES THROUGH SUNSET. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF STRONGER VORT MAXES WILL REINFORCE THE TROF OVER THE NORTHERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS CROSSING OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO DRIVE SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN GULF...REACHING CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN FACT MOST MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THIS LOW WILL TRACK EAST OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEAST. TRAILING NORTHEAST- SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAINED DRAPED OVER AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. IN ADDITION...MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS WILL SEND GULF MOISTURE OVER OUR CWA WITH PWATS STEADILY INCREASING. APPEARS RAIN WILL INITIATE OVER THE APALACHEE BAY MONDAY MORNING DUE TO DECENT SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...WITH RAIN REACHING AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 75...SPREADING NORTHEAST AND INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP POPS FOR MON NIGHT AS SEVERAL VORT MAXES ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF MEAN TROF. AS ADVERTISED...ON TUESDAY MESOETA BRINGS ALL INGREDIENTS TOGETHER OVER THE CWA WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. OVERALL...WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXTENDED...WITH CUT OFF OVER THE NORTHERN GULF RETROGRADING TO TEXAS...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR RETURN OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION LATE NEXT WEEK. MARINE...WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 4 FEET OR LESS. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 5 FEET MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW INTENSIFIES OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA. PRELIM AMG TT 060/088 067/088 070 16055 SSI TT 070/087 072/086 074 16055 JAX TT 065/089 071/088 071 16055 SGJ TT 071/087 072/087 072 16055 GNV TT 067/087 070/087 070 16055 OCF TT 068/087 070/087 071 16255= .JAX... .GA...NONE. .FL...NONE. ZAPPE