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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDMOB Product Timestamp: 2002-06-13 20:10 UTC
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000 FXUS64 KMOB 132010 AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 310 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2002 FOR THE CURRENT PACKAGE...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS SHAPING UP TO BE PRECIP (WHEN AND WHERE). LOOKING AT THIS MORNINGS AND THE CURRENT ANALYSIS...UPPER LOW WAS SITUATED OVER NORTHERN MN...WITH WEAK TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTH TO AND SPLITTING RIDGE OVER MX INTO THE CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER LOW SITS POISED OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A POOL OF DRIER AIR( PRECIP H20 AMOUNTS 0.85 AT KBMX AND KFFC) OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH AMOUNTS RISING RAPIDLY TO AND ABOVE 1.3 (NEAR TO 130% OF NORMAL). GULF BREEZE IS CREEPING NORTH OVER THE COASTAL MS/AL/FL COUNTIES (ALMOST TO KMOB AT 19:30Z ACCORDING TO KMOB RADAR). SURFACE FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISS RIVER VALLEY (ROUGH KCDS TO KFSM TO KHUF). 12Z ETA/12Z AVN/00Z NGM MOVE MN LOW SOUTH...THEN EAST TO THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF MI BY F36/FRI EVE. THIS SOUTHERN PUSH LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO SEND A FRONT TO NEAR THE FA BY ABOUT F36. UPPER LOW THEN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MEANDER EAST...WITH SURFACE FRONT PUSHING INTO COASTAL WATERS BY F45. ETA LESS ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THE PUSH...WITH FRONT STALLING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...WHILE AVN MOVES IT INTO CENTRAL GULF. WITH STRENGTH OF RIDGE...AM TENDING TO LEAN TOWARDS ETA. THIS MEANS TEMP WONT SEE MUCH OF A DECREASE. JUST A DECREASE IN HUMIDITY FOR THE WEEKEND. WILL LIKELY NOT CHANGE THE FORECAST ALL THAT MUCH. PRECIP BASICALLY OVER MOST ZONES BY FRI MORN. IN THE EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN GULF INTO NEXT WEEK. ECMWF/UKMO BRING A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS(AVN 24HRS BEHIND)...BUT LOOKS TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. AM BASICALLY CONTINUING THE GULF BREEZE INDUCED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MARINE...WIND FLOW AND SEAS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. SOUTHWEST TODAY...BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF TWEAKING WITH NEW MODEL DATA...LITTLE CHANGE TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH REGARD TO SEAS. FIRE...NO CONCERNS INTO FRIDAY. WEEKEND WILL LIKELY SEE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS. PRELIM NUMBERS... MOB 71/ 91/ 68/ 90/ 10 50 40 00 PNS 75/ 91/ 71/ 89/ 10 50 40 00 DTS 76/ 88/ 72/ 88/ 10 50 40 00 GZH 69/ 89/ 66/ 90/ 20 60 20 00 2R0 68/ 89/ 66/ 90/ 30 60 20 00 61A 68/ 89/ 66/ 90/ 30 60 20 00 .MOB... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. 16/10