571 
FXUS63 KICT 032008
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
310 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2002

...FCST PROBLEMS INCLUDE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY 
RAINFALL...

ETA/AVN BLEND SHOWING INTERESTING WEATHER POTENTIAL NEXT 36 HOURS.  
FOR TNGT...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS WEAK WAVE OVER NE NM/NRN TX PNDL 
THAT MODELS DONT SEEM TO PICK UP ON...DECENT HIGH LVL MOISTURE 
STREAM OVR WRN TX.  AS THIS MOVES ACROSS KS...WITH LLJ INTERACTING 
WITH FNTL BOUNDARY OVR NRN/WRN KS...ANTICIPATE ELEVATED SHOWERS 
(ABOVE CAP) DVLPING TGT ACRSS CENTRAL/SCTRL ZONES...MUCH LIKE WE SAW 
TO OUR NW LAST NGT. MAIN THREAT OF STG CONVECTION SHOULD BE SRN 
NE/NRN KS ALNG/JUST N OF SURFACE FRONT...SHOULD SEE MCS DVLP ON NOSE 
OF LLJ (GOOD 850MB CONVERGENCE OVR NRN KS TNGT)...AND MOVE EWD.  WILL
GO HIGHER POPS (40 OR SO) CTRL KS...WILL KEEP SE KS DRY FOR TNGT.

FOR TMRW...ALL MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING FROM NW KS TO 
ECTRL KS DURING DAY...WITH RRQ OF BACKBUILDING UPR JETSTREAK TO 
NORTH PROVIDING STRONG UPR DIVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SUCH A SYSTEM.  WILL
GO WITH LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS.  WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW 
NIGHT SOUTHCENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ZONES...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES IN 
CTRL KS TMRW NGT.  WILL MENTION HEAVY RAIN PSBL AS INGREDIENTS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING MCS (BOUNDARY/LLJ INTERACTION... 
BACKBLDG UPR JET WITH STRONG UPR DIVERGENCE ETC).  WILL LEAVE FLOOD
WATCH DECISION FOR NIGHT SHIFT AFTER NEXT MODEL RUN REVIEWED.  HIGH 
TEMPS DEPEND ON EXTENT OF PCPN/CLOUDINESS...WILL MAKE MINOR 
ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FCST.

FNT/PCPN SHIFTS SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH WAVE PASSING 
OVER AREA WILL KEEP 20 POPS SOUTHCENTRAL ZONES...40 POPS SE ZONES.  
NICE COOLDOWN STILL EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS ONLY IN MID 70S WED.

ONLY ADJUSTMENT IN EXTENDED WAS TO INCLUDE CHANCE PCPN SUNDAY.  
ECMWF LOOKS TOO SLOW/STRONG WITH WRN TROUGH...AVN LOOKS TO FAST/FAR 
NORTH WITH ITS SYSTEM...GOING WITH A COMPROMISE SLOWER THAN AVN AND 
WEAKER THAN ECMWF WITH FRONT GOING THROUGH SUNDAY.  
 
FCSTID=19
ICT   70  83  60  75 /  30  70  60  20
HUT   69  81  58  74 /  30  70  50  10
EWK   69  82  59  74 /  30  70  60  20
EQA   70  83  60  75 /  30  70  60  20
WLD   71  86  61  74 /  20  60  60  30
RSL   64  74  53  74 /  40  70  30  10
GBD   66  75  55  74 /  30  70  30  10
SLN   66  76  55  74 /  40  70  40  10
MPR   69  81  59  74 /  30  70  50  10
CFV   71  89  62  74 /  10  50  70  40
CNU   70  87  62  75 /  10  60  70  40
K88   70  87  61  75 /  10  60  70  40

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

WOLF