908 
FXUS63 KTOP 032001
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
237 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2002

PRECIP TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST ARE 
THE MAIN CHALLENGES.

PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED OUT INTO CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON WITH 
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST KS AND CENTRAL NEB. WITH SHORT WAVES 
MOVING OVERHEAD IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT 
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MORE ISOLATED AND ELEVATED STUFF OUT 
AHEAD OF IT. THINK THAT PRECIP FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE PRIMARILY 
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. THEN AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OVER 
NIGHT...SO SHOULD THE PRECIP. THERE IS A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER 
THIS EVENING. THE VARIOUS SOUNDING TODAY SHOW THE MID LEVELS COOLING 
NICELY...BUT THERE IS STILL A DECENT CAP AROUND 850 MB. THINK THAT 
THE CAP WILL HOLD MOST OF THE WARM SECTOR IN CHECK SO THE BEST 
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER (LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS) SHOULD BE 
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND BEHIND IT.  

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY FOR TUESDAY AS THE FRONT 
SLOWLY MOVES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO 
MOVE OVERHEAD AND IN ADDITION SOME FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AS THE 
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION WILL INCREASE UPPER DIVERGENCE. PRECIP COULD 
BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. 

THE MODELS HAVE COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ENDING PRECIP DURING 
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN. WILL END PRECIP ACROSS 
THE NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS EAST 
CENTRAL SECTIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE REMOVED PRECIP FOR 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CONTINUE TO BE DRY AS SURFACE 
RIDGING TAKES HOLD. MODELS ARE STILL HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN 
RESOLVING THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LATER IN THE WEEK. IN ANY CASE EXPECT 
THE CWA TO BE BETWEEN THE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE EAST AND ANY 
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND TX. 

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS TO COME INTO THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. 
RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES EAST 
FRIDAY. THINK TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY 
SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA INCREASE. THERE ARE SOME TIMING 
DIFFERENCES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLATED FOR THE WEEKEND. 
COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE REALLY FAST MRF AND THE REALLY SLOW ECMWF 
AND PUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN ON SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE 
SOME CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST WITH THE LEE 
TROUGH. KEPT THE CHANCE FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT.

.TOP...NONE

WOLTERS