000 
FXUS61 KCAR 280451
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1250 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2002

.UPDATED...
MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST
WITH MOST ACTIVITY OFFSHORE. WILL UPDATE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND COASTAL ZONES
TO REFLECT SHOWERS LATE WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE AND WILL LOWER POPS ACROSS THE
REGION. ALONG THE COAST THE AREAS OF FOG ARE LOCALLY DENSE SO WILL ALSO
MENTION THIS.

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT BECOMING
STATIONARY ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WILL GAIN CONTROL OF THE AREAS WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.DISCUSSION...
THIS FCST WILL REFLECT A BLEND OF THE AVN/ETA. TEMPS HOWEVER WILL REFLECT A
BLEND OF THE FWC/MAV.

SHRA ACTIVITY POPPING UP ALG THE BNDRY AS IT SLIDES SLOWLY S ACRS ME/CAN
BORDER. MID-SHIFT DID EXCELLENT JOB OF HANDLING SCTD SHRA FOR NRN ZNS THIS
AFTN. FNTL BNDRY DROPS ACRS THE CWFA TNGT W/WK SFC WV DVLPG ON THE BNDRY
& MOVG ACRS CNTL PART OF THE STATE. I LEANED CLOSER TO AVN/S POSN OF WK WV
BASED ON LATEST RGNL RDR. NOT MUCH CHG IN THE AIRMASS W/FNTL BNDRY. 12Z UA
INDICATED A S/WV IN MID-LVLS MOVG THRU OH VLY. THIS FTRE COULD HELP TO
ENHANCE SHRA ACTIVITY ACRS DOWNEAST AREAS LATER TNGT. I DECIDED TO GO LIKELY
DOWNEAST/CST LATE TNGT. WENT W/STCD SHRA FURTHER N. HOWEVER...QPF LOOKS
OVERDONE & SCALED AMTS DOWN QUITE A BIT IN THE GRIDDS. WILL CARRY FG FOR
DOWNEAST/CST TNGT. DWPTS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 40S & LOWER 50S & DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THEM FALLING BACK MUCH OVNGT. WK ONSHORE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE
BNDRY SHOULD AID IN FG. BR FOR THE MOST PART N OF KLRG-DOV/FOX LINE.

WV PASSES INTO WRN NEW BRUNSWICK EARLY TUE W/BNDRY LAYING UP ACRS
DOWNEAST AREAS. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER OK HITTING MID 70S ACRS THE N & EVEN
INTERIOR DOWNEAST. CSTL SITES WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER DUE TO SWLY (200 DEGS)
FLOW. I THK DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE BEST SHOT FOR ANY AFTN TSRA W/BEST
INSTABILITY. WENT W/SCTD TSRA FOR DOWNEAST & THE CST TUE AFTN. HIGH PRES RDG
@ THE SFC & ALF WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE CWFA TUE NGT INTO WED. WK
ONSHORE FLOW DVLPG ACRS DOWNEAST/CSTL TUE NGT COULD LEAD TO FG. WENT W/FG
DOWN THAT WAY & JUST BR FURTHER N. RDG LOOKS TO HOLD ON INTO WED. ELONGATED
VORT MAX PROGGED BY THE AVN & TO A LARGER EXTENT THE ETA LATE WED AFTN. BOTH
SHOW MINIMAL QPF BY 60 HRS. MOS NMBRS SHOWING NEAR NON-EXISTENT POPS.
ATTM...I BELIEVE RDG WILL HANG ON TO KP SHRA @ BAY. NO POPS FOR WED.

COULD SEE SCTD SHRA BRUSH DOWNEAST/CST WED NGT. HOWEVER...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MSRBL RAFL...SO WILL LEAVE POPS OUT. AS A MATTER OF FACT...
AVN/CAN GLOBAL SHOW NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAFL EVENT TO COME THU NGT-EARLY FRI
W/WM FNT & VORT MAX. A BREAK IN THE ACTN FRI AFTN & THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/PSBL TSRA FRI NGT-EARLY SAT AS CD FNT & STG VORT MAX SWING THRU THE
CWFA. EXTENDED GUID SHOWS CWFA REMAINING UNDER CYCLONIC REGIME INTO SUN
W/NRN AREAS FEELING BRUNT OF SCTD SHRA ACTIVITY. MUCH COOLER AIR TO ARRIVE
ON SAT & LAST INTO SUN W/THICKNESSES TAKING A DIVE. STILL PLENTY OF TIME
TO ADJUST THGS THIS FAR OUT.

.COASTAL WATERS...
NO FLAGS THRU THE SHORT TERM. WILL UP PLAY FG ON THE WTRS. HAVE RCVD
RPRTS OF FG THIS AFTN. DON/T ANTICIPATE MUCH CHG IN THE AIRMASS OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HRS. FG WILL PLAY HAVOC ON THE WTRS AGN TUE NGT. WINDS WILL
AVG 10-15 FOR THE MOST PART THRU THE SHORT TERM PD.

.CAR...NONE.

DW