000 
FXUS65 KVEF 272232 CCA
AFDLAS

MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
330 PM PDT MON MAY 27 2002

SYNOPSIS...A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT 
BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT TUESDAY BEFORE A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER 
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND 
WITH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY CLIMBING TO THE HIGHEST READINGS SO 
FAR THIS YEAR.
 
DISCUSSION...SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AGAIN COULD BE SEEN ON 
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDING FROM WEST CENTRAL TO 
NORTHEAST NEVADA. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CLOSE TO OUR NORTHERN 
FORECAST AREA BOUNDARY. THE BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH 
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY 
BUT IT IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO TELL HOW WELL THEY WILL HANG 
TOGETHER. THE AVN INDICATES PROBABLY MORE SUNSHINE THAN CLOUDS OVER 
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND KEPT THE FORECAST THAT WAY. 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING THE MOST NOTICEABLE TREND IN THE 
SHORT TERM AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB UNDER A RATHER STRONG RIDGE. 
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY SO FAR THIS YEAR.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AND COMPLICATED FROM 
FRIDAY AND BEYOND. THE AVN SHOWS A SOUTHEAST OR SOUTHERLY FLOW 
DEVELOPING BETWEEN A WEAK CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST AND A HIGH 
OVER THE ROCKIES. SHOULD THIS PATTERN HOLD...IT WOULD BE FAVORABLE 
FOR BRINGING UP MID AND HIGH LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE (ASSOCIATED 
WITH TROPICAL STORM ALMA) INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER 
VALUES INCREASE TO OVER ONE INCH BY SATURDAY MORNING INTO SOUTHERN 
NEVADA. THE MOISTURE INCREASE ALONG WITH MID LEVEL COOLING COULD 
LEAD TO AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON TOTALLY JUMPING 
ON THIS TREND NOW...BUT DECIDED TO LEAD INTO IT WITH A MENTION OF 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST MOUNTAINS SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS 
FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC. THIS WOULD SWEEP MOISTURE TO THE EAST EXCEPT OVER CENTRAL 
NEVADA WHICH REMAINS IN A DEFORMATION ZONE. IF ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS 
CONTINUE TO HOLD THIS TREND...POPS AND COVERAGE WILL NEED TO BE 
INCREASED FOR SATURDAY.  ADAIR

.LAS...NONE.