National Weather Service Text Product
Displaying AFOS PIL: SPSTUL
Product Timestamp: 2002-05-26 10:15 UTC
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000 WWUS84 KTSA 261016 SPSTUL ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271200- EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 515 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2002 ...A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I-40... A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MAINLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IN AREAS GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH OF I-40. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY AROUND MIDDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT WITH ANY STORMS THAT MOVE INTO THE AREA. $$ .SPOTTER ACTIVATION... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. .DISCUSSION... A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. THE DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITIES HAVE RESULTED IN STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVER AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 THIS MORNING. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY AROUND MIDDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES TO THE EAST. BY LATER TONIGHT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL OUT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE DAY. STORMS OUT TO THE WEST ARE LIKELY TO FORM A COMPLEX THAT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER AS THE STORMS MOVE AWAY FROM THE GREATER INSTABILITY OUT WEST THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. THREAT TABLE VALID THROUGH 1200 UTC MONDAY AREA 1...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SOUTH OF I-40 THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...100 SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...50 SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...20 THREAT AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST RISK. PROBABILITIES ARE IN PERCENT. SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/TORNADO DAMAGE AND/OR GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER. $$ RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA
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