National Weather Service Raw Text Product

000 
FXUS63 KLSX 220950
AFDSTL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
400 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2002

ONE MORE QUIET WX DAY IN STORE FOR THE BI-STATE REGION WITH UPR LVL 
RDG OVR MO IL TDA...AND LOW LVL WAA INCRSG ON BACK SIDE OF SFC/850 
MB HI WITH INCRSG S-SELY SFC WNDS AS STG PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVS EWD 
INTO AREA.  INCRSG MID-HI LVL WAA CLOUDS TDA ESPECIALLY OVR NRN AND 
WRN PTN OF THE CWA.  LOW LVL CLOUDS/MOISTURE ADVCTG NWD THRU CNTRL 
TX HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO TO MAKE IT INTO CWA.  MDLS NOT INDICATING 
MUCH LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE TIL LATE TGT AND EARLY THU.  WL PUT A LOW 
POP IN UIN AREA LATE TGT AS ETA MDL CONTS TO GENERATE QPF IN THIS 
REGION AS STG SWLY LLJ BRINGS BOTH STG 850 MB THETA E ADVCTN AND 
MOISTURE CNVG TO THIS AREA BY 06Z THU.  ETA MDL ALSO DEPICTS THE K 
INDICES INCRSG TO ARND 35 IN NERN MO WITH 850-600 MB D THETA E/DZ 
DCRSG TO -5 TO -10 BY 12Z THU.  EXPECTING WKNG ELEVATED CONVECTION 
IN OR NR THIS REGION LATE TGT AND EARLY THU.  BETTER THREAT FOR 
CONVECTION THU AFTN AND THU NGT AS CDFNT MOVS SEWD THRU CWA AND 
SFC/850 MB MOISTURE BCMS MORE ABUNDANT.  ETA MDL ALSO INDICATING UPR 
DIVERGENCE INCRSG OVR MUCH OF THE CWA THU AND THU NGT IN RGT
ENTRANCE REGION OF JT STRK MOVG NEWD THRU THE GRT LKS REGION.  ETA 
MDL ALSO FASTEST WITH CDFNT TAKING IT SEWD THRU STL ALREADY BY 12Z 
FRI...ALTHOUGH 850 MB FNT LAGGING BACK ACRS NRN MO.  AVN MDL KEEPS 
PCPN GOING THRU SAT UNTIL PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY NRN STRM SHRTWV 
TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC WV ON FNT MOVG THRU NERN MO.  WL LEAVE EXTD 
FCST ALONE ALTHOUGH IT APRS THAT PCPN SHOULD PUSH E AND S OF THE CWA 
BY SAT NGT WITH RELATIVELY STG SFC RDG MOVG SEWD INTO CWA.
                      
.STL...NONE

GKS