000 
FXUS65 KTFX 121510
AFDTFX

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
910 AM MDT SUN MAY 12 2002

.SHORT TERM...QUIET MORNING OVER SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL 
MONTANA. MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE OVER THE CWA ARE QUICKLY 
DISSIPATING THIS MORNING. WILL REMOVE MORNING CLOUDS FROM THE 
FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES ON THE 
COOL SIDE...BUT THEY ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP FROM UPDATING. MEIER

.EXTENDED...MRF/AVN RUN CONTINUES TO BE TOO STRONG AND TOO FAST
MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE RIDGE. BY WEDNESDAY THE MRF AND
NOGAPS HAVE CARVED OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALTA AND
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENS THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE...AND TRANSITIONS
INTO A WEAK OPEN TROUGH. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN LINE WITH
THIS SCENARIO...WITH COOLER WEATHER AND INCREASED CLOUDS OVER THE CWA
EARLY IN THE 4-7 DAY PERIOD. ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOR A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPS. MPJ

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF BU 067/040 076/045 071 14000
    NEWEB 037/065 039/060 038/066 038/070 038 11123322211
CTB BU 065/036 072/042 067 14000
    NEWEB 038/063 035/060 034/065 034/068 034 11123322211
HLN BU 070/039 077/045 071 14000
    NEWEB 040/066 038/063 037/067 037/070 037 12223322211
BZN BU 066/033 075/040 070 14000
    BEBEE 040/065 037/062 036/065 036/068 036 12223322211
WEY BU 061/022 067/030 064 14000
    BEWEB 032/060 030/056 030/060 030/064 030 12233333311
DLN UU 065/034 073/042 071 14000
    BEWEB 042/065 038/062 040/066 040/070 040 12222222211
HVR BU 069/038 078/045 074 14000
    NEWEB 040/066 038/062 038/066 038/070 038 11223322211
LWT BU 064/036 073/042 070 14000
    NEWEB 038/065 037/062 038/066 038/070 038 -1123322211=

.TFX...NONE.