000 
FXUS64 KBMX 071938
AFDBHM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
237 PM CDT SUN APR 07 2002

LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.  LOW LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF
50 KNOTS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY.  EXPECT THE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA TO DE-STABILIZE QUICKLY IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED MOISTURE...LIFT AND UPPER SUPPORT.  FOR NOW...WILL GO
WITH SMALL POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN SECTIONS TONIGHT TO
COVER ANY DEBRIS FROM TSTMS TO OUR WEST MOVING INTO THE AREA.  ON
MONDAY...SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND CHANCE POPS
EAST LOOK FINE.

THINGS BEGIN TO GET INTERESTING MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  WITH THE
GULF WIDE OPEN...EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY AS IMPRESSIVE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MOVES
ACROSS.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING
AS SEVERAL WAVES OF SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  FRONT DOES NOT
REALLY MOVE INTO THE NW SECTIONS UNTIL LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
GOES STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WEST OF THE
AREA WILL HAVE A BIG INFLUENCE ON FUTURE CONDITIONS FOR US.

FINALLY...GIVEN THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY WILL ADD
CAUTION ON AREAS LAKES AND WATERWAYS FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.  A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...BUT THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT CAN TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.

HSV 56/72/59/69 1479
BHM 56/73/60/70 1479
MGM 58/75/60/73 0359

.BHM...NONE.