000 
FXUS64 KLUB 070907
AFDLBB

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
405 AM CDT SUN APR 7 2002

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA MAKING SLOW PROGRESS
TO THE EAST. MODELS ARE SIMILAR SHOWING THE LOW MOVING TO NEAR CLOVIS
BY 00Z MONDAY AND TO NEAR GAGE BY 12Z MONDAY. CONVECTION IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME CONTINUES OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS 
MORNING.

MOISTURE IS BACKED UP TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE DRYLINE TRYING TO
MOVE PAST THE GUADALUPE PASS. WILL GO WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ETA
SOLUTION WITH REGARDS TO TIMING ON THE DRYLINE. 06Z ETA SHOWS AN
AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG FOR CAPE FROM TULIA TO POST BY 18Z. MANY
FACTORS INVOLVED IN WHETHER OR NOT INSTABILITY WILL BE REALIZED.
TIMING OF STRATUS EXIT AND AMOUNT OF TIME FOR MARGINAL HEATING
OF THE AIRMASS STILL IN QUESTION. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS COULD HINDER INSTABILITY. BUT WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES MOVING INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
CLOSER...MAY NOT NEED AS MUCH INSOLATION TO REACH THESE CAPE VALUES.
WILL GO WITH POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS
THE SURFACE DEVELOPS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
DRYLINE WILL BE SITUATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH
THE UNSTABLE AXIS REMAINING OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS TO CONTINUE A 
CHANCE OF STORMS THIS EVENING.

WILL GO WITH THE COOLER AVN SOLUTION FOR MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN.

BENIGN WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THEN ANOTHER STRONG UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.


FRI 65 44 58 38 / 40 20 10 00
TIA 66 44 58 38 / 40 20 10 00
CDS 67 49 62 43 / 50 30 10 00
BNF 70 45 64 42 / 30 10 10 00
LUB 69 47 62 41 / 40 10 10 00
ASP 70 52 66 47 / 50 30 10 00

.LUB...NONE.

TINSLEY