000 
FXUS66 KLOX 070529
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 PM PST SAT APR 6 2002

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER TROF CLEARED OUT MOST PARTS OF THE
DISTRICT EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO
EXPAND OVER SLO/SBA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY WITH A
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IN THIS REGION. FURTHER SOUTH...AN EDDY WAS
STARTING THE FORM AS LIGHT SE WINDS NOTED AT LGB...AND LIGHT S WINDS
AT SMO. THE MESO-ETA HAS BEEN FORECASTING AN EDDY TONIGHT FOR SEVERAL
RUNS NOW...AND WITH STRONG NW WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS...AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE NEAR LAS VEGAS...ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR AN
EDDY TO CRANK UP OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD LOW CLOUDS BACK INTO MOST COAST
AND VALLEY AREAS S OF POINT CONCEPTION AS WELL. THE DEEP MOIST LAYER 
WILL PERSIST...WITH LOW CLOUDS MOVING WELL UP INTO THE COASTAL SLOPES
LATER TONIGHT. 

A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OFF THE CA COAST THRU SUN...
THEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A BIT SUN NITE AND MON AS A WEAK 
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO NORTHERN CA BY LATE MON. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE DISTRICT DURING THE PERIOD...WITH A DEEP MOIST LAYER
LINGERING SUN BUT SLOWLY SHRINKING THRU MON...BUT THE EDDY SHOULD FORM
AGAIN SUN NITE. SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND 
MORE SO MON ESPECIALLY INLAND. TEMPS SHOULD NOT WARM UP MUCH THRU MON 
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE VALLEYS...BUT FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS
EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY AS THE MARINE LAYER
LOWERS. 

A WEAK UPPER TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE DISTRICT TUE AFTERNOON...THEN A
LARGER TROF IS FORECAST BY THE AVN TO MOVE MAINLY INTO CENTRAL CA TUE
NITE AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CA ON WED...NOT QUITE BUT ALMOST LIKE AN
INSIDE SLIDER. THE UPPER TROF SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES
FROM LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED MORNING...BUT ANY RAIN FROM THIS 
SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY NORTH OF VTU/L.A COUNTIES. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SLIDE EAST ON THU TO GIVE THE DISTRICT GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER...
EXCEPT FOR MORE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. TEMPS
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE TEMPERED BY GENERALLY PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW...BUT THE WARMEST WEATHER THIS WEEK SHOULD BE TUE FOLLOWED BY
SOME COOLING FOR WED AND THU.

WILL DO A MINOR ZONE UPDATE BY 945 PM MAINLY TO ADJUST WORDING FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND WINDS WHERE NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...BALANCE OF THE ZONES
LOOKS GOOD.

LAX 0000. SIRARD

.LOX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLAX).