726 
FXUS63 KLSX 300847
AFDSTL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
240 AM CST SAT MAR 30 2002

MDLS SHWG LTL OVERALL PATTERN CHG OVR THE NEXT 4-5 DYS AS THE UPR 
RDG RMNS ANCHORED OVR THE EPAC AND A MEAN VORTEX MIGRATES ABT INVOF 
OF SCNTRL CAN/HUDSON BAY.  THIS MAINTAINS BROAD TROFG OVR MUCH OF 
THE CONUS.  

IN THE NR TERM THE FRNTL BNDRY WHICH PROGRESSED THRU THE CWFA YDA 
HAS BCM STNRY FM THE NRN GULF STATES ACRS THE LWR MS VLY INTO W TX 
AND LOW LVLS HV DRIED QUITE A BIT AS HI PRES HAS NOSED IN FM THE 
CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS.  HI PRES WL CONT TO NOSE IN TDA WITH SOME WK 
CAA OCCURING.  MAIN QUESTION FOR TDA WL BE IMPACT OF CLDS ON TMPS.  
CIRRUS HAS ALREADY SPRD ACRS MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF MO AND THIS 
SHUD MAINTAIN ITSELF THRU THE DAY.  IT DOESNT LK TOO THICK ON THE 
LATEST IR IMAGES ALTHO IT WL PRBLY THICKEN UP SOME THIS MRNG THEN 
DCRS TWDS MIDDAY AS NOCTURNAL CNVCTN TO OUR SOUTH WKNS AND BLOWOFF 
LESSENS.  MID CLD BAND ACRS NEB WL ALSO ADVANCE TO THE ESE TDA AND 
THIS WL LIKELY BE A PLAYER FOR THE FAR NRN ZNS.  ALL IN ALL I STILL 
FAVOR THE WARMER GUID TMPS TDA WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE ETA 
AND AVN 2M VALUES.  

IMPACT OF THE UPR LOW NOW SW OF ELP WL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR 
THE FCST TNGT AS IT LIFTS OUT AND THE ASSOCD SFC LOW OVR W TX MOVS 
ACRS THE LWR MS VLY.  GIVEN HOW THE LOW LVLS HV DRIED AND AN E/NE 
COMP TO THE LOW LVL FLOW INDCTD ACRS SRN MO/IL TNGT WITH WLY MID LVL 
FLOW...THIS SHUD LIMIT THE NWD EXTENT OF MSTR/PCPN...AND IM 
INCLINED ATTM TO BLV THE NGM IS OVERDONE IN SPRDG PCPN SO FAR 
NORTH.  THE ETA LKS MORE REALISTIC ATTM AND HAS BEEN FOLLOWED...AND 
AS SUCH WL JUST BRING A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THE ERN OZARKS AND FAR 
SW IL.  LIFT FM THE NRN STRM SYS TNGT LKS LIKE IT WL AT BEST SKIRT 
THE FAR NRN ZNS AND MAINLY BE FOCUSED IN IA. WL RETAIN A DRY FCST 
BUT THIS WL NEED TO BE WATCHED. MAIN IMPACT FM NRN STRM SHRTWV TROF 
WL BE ASSOCD SFC TROF/CDFNT.  FNT WL PROGRESS ACRS THE CWFA ON SUN 
WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE RGN AS HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE 
PLAINS.  NOTICEABLE CAA OCCURING WITH THIS SYS AND TMPS SHUD BE A 
CAT OR SO COOLER...MORE IF ACCOMPANIED BY EXTNSV CD AIR SC.  SLGT 
COOLING WL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS ADVERTISED WRM-UP FOR MON STILL 
ON SCHEDULE AS GOOD WAA DVLPS IN THE WAKE OF THE RETREATING HI.  ETA 
ARND 4 DEG WARMER AT H85 AT 60H AND SUGGESTS GOING WITH AT LEAST THE 
WARMER MAV GUID...IF NOT WARMER.  RMNDR OF THE FCST STILL ON TARGET 
WITH A CHC OF PCPN LATE MON INTO TUE WITH NEXT CD FROPA.  AVN 
SHOWING A PRETTY GOOD SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR FOR MIDWEEK.     

.STL...NONE
GLASS