000 
FXUS64 KLUB 280735
AFDLBB

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
130 AM CST THU MAR 28 2002

MOST AREAS TODAY SHOULD HAVE A WEST-NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND, WHICH, 
GIVEN UPSTREAM 07Z TEMPERATURES, SHOULD RESULT IN MAXIMA INTO THE 
80S THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO BACK INTO NORTHEAST 
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN MITIGATING FACTOR ON TEMPERATURES WILL BE 
CIRRUS, WHICH MAY BE DENSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT INSOLATION. MILD TONIGHT 
WITH VEERED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. SHALLOW FRONT SLIDES INTO THE 
AREA ON FRIDAY, AS MID/HIGH LEVEL DIFLUENCE BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD FROM 
THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. DEGREE OF CIN AND QUALITY OF LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE MAKE STORM CHANCES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON SOMEWHAT IN 
DOUBT. INSTABILITY LOOKS FAVORABLE WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, 
ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH GOING FORECAST FOR FRIDAY 
AFTERNOON BUT MAY REDUCE POPS A LITTLE. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY 
HAVE HIGHER RAIN CHANCE NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OWING TO 
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL CLOSED 
CIRCULATION. AVN SHOWS RAIN CHANCE ENDING SATURDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM 
MOVES EAST. HIGH POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY LOOK ON TRACK BASED 
ON LATEST DATA. OVERALL, EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS UPDATE.

PRELIMINARY:
FRI 80 50 72 48 / 00 00 30 70
TIA 81 52 73 48 / 00 00 30 70
CDS 83 55 76 50 / 00 00 20 70
BNF 84 54 80 55 / 00 00 30 70
LUB 84 53 79 53 / 00 00 30 70
ASP 86 58 84 56 / 00 00 20 70

.LUB...NONE.