000 
FXUS64 KMAF 240942
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
342 AM CST SAT MAR 23 2002

SHOULD BE A WARM ONE TEMPERATURE WISE TODAY...ALONG WITH WINDY AND
VERY DRY CONDITIONS TOO. A SATELLITE LOOK AND INITIALIZATION FIRST.
WATER VAPOR ANIMATION INDICATED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS SHOULD
OCCUR TODAY AS A SURGE OF HIGH LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FLOWS OVER
THE REGION. SATELLITE AND 00Z UPPER AIR INDICATED A COMPLEX PATTERN
OVER THE PACIFIC NW...WITH PRONOUNCED (AND VERY COLD) UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA. SURFACE LOW WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE...WITH WEAK TROUGHING DIGGING SOUTHWARD TO THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS...PER 06Z ANALYSIS AND 08Z STREAMLINES. THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUD SATELLITE SHOWED LOW CLOUDS NEARING OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
ADVECTING FROM THE HILL COUNTRY. STRENGTHENING LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND
SURFACE WINDS VEERING FROM THE S-SW SHOULD KEEP THEM JUST EAST OF OUR
REGION BY DAYBREAK. OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER...ANOTHER CANADIAN/ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM SE COLORADO...TO NW KANSAS TO IOWA.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RULE TODAY.
WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL GO FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS. WITH THE STRONGER WINDS LIKELY TAKING PLACE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WILL HOLD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE TEXAS
PLAINS. BUT MAY JUMP THE GUN AND PLACE THE NEW MEXICO PLAINS IN AN
ADVISORY AT ZONE ISSUANCE TIME. WINDY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL NOT HELP WITH FIRE FIGHTING IN OUR NW FIRE WEATHER
ZONES TODAY. ALTHOUGH NOT AS WINDY FOR THE BIG BEND COUNTRY...LOW
ENOUGH HUMIDITIES MAKES IT PRUDENT TO RAISE THE RED FLAGS REGIONWIDE
TODAY. WILL COOL FORECASTED HIGHS GENERALLY A CATEGORY TO THE HIGHER
SIDE OF OUR LATEST GUIDANCE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SLOWER PROGRESS AND AFFECT THE NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL ACCELERATE SOUTH
AFTER DUSK AND SHOULD START AFFECTING OUR NE ZONES (SCURRY/HOWARD
COUNTIES) BEFORE MIDNIGHT...MIDLAND A BIT AFTERWARD...AND BE SOUTH
OF THE PECOS BEFORE DAYBREAK. WENT WITH THE ETA IN THIS REGARD...
ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE STILL TOO SLOW TIMING WISE. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY
COMPARED TO SUNDAY WILL WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS (LOCALLY 73/43).
ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE ANOTHER DRAMATIC COOLDOWN...I DO NOT EXPECT
AS DRASTIC A COOLDOWN LIKE THIS PAST THURSDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD RETURN DURING THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME AFTER
MID WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE A RETURN THIS NEW WEEK...
AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. THUS IF THINGS
HOLD ON...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THEN. BUT WITH POPS BEING LOW AND
EXTENDED MODEL INCONSISTENCIES...WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW.

THANKS FOR COORDINATION LBB. FIRST GUESS TEMPS AND POPS FOLLOW...

MAF  80/42/64/32    0000
LSA  79/37/60/30    0000
6R6  86/52/76/39    0000
MRF  77/36/68/29    0000
CNM  81/45/68/33    0000

.MAF...
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING TXZ258.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING NMZ027.

BOYD