National Weather Service Raw Text Product

000 
FXUS63 KLSX 210829
AFDSTL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
230 AM CST THU MAR 21 2002

MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE IS WIND AND TEMP TRENDS IN THE 
SHORT TERM.  SHARP CDFNT NOW ENTERING FAR NWRN PART OF CWFA WILL 
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING.  WOULD EXPECT THE FRONT TO 
BE THROUGH STL SHORTLY AFTER 12Z AND CLEAR SLO...SAR AND FAM AROUND 
15Z.  RH PROGS SHOW THAT THE POST FRONTAL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO 
CLEAR THE AREA.  WILL GO WITH CLEARING TREND IN UIN AND COU ZONES  
IN THE AFTN AND STL LATE AND KEEP CLOUDS IN THE S AND E.  GIVEN THE 
CLOUDS AND IMPRESSIVE CAA...WILL MENTION MORNING HIGHS IN THE S AND 
E AND JUST STEADY TEMPS ELSEWHERE.  PROFILERS ARE SHOWING 30-35KT 
925-850MB WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER IA AND NEB.  MESOETA SHOWING 
PRETTY MUCH THE SAME GRADIENT OVER CWA AS CURRENTLY OVER IA SO WILL 
GO WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.  GUSTS WILL RUN CLOSE TO 40 MPH NEAR UIN 
AND COU THIS MORNING BASED ON SFC PRES FALLS. 

REMAINING LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY THIS EVENING LEAVING 
CLEAR SKIES.  CENTER OF SFC HIGH WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS 
TONIGHT KEEPING SOME GRADIENT WINDS OVER AREA TONIGHT.  THIS SHOULD 
PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING CLOSE TO THE DEWPOINT VALUES PROGGED TO 
BE JUST BELOW 0F.  FWC/MAV TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREMENT FOR LOWS 
TONIGHT AND NEAR RECORD WORDING STILL LOOKS GOOD IN UIN AND COU.  

SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL BRING A WELCOME RETURN OF SUNSHINE ON 
FRIDAY.  STRONG WAA PATTERN BEGINS TO SET OVER MO/IL UP ON SAT.  
OTHERWISE...FWC/MAV TEMPS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT.

PCPN CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED STILL LOOK ON TARGET FOR SUN AND MON.  
NEW MEX GUIDANCE LOOKS LIKE TEMPS MAY BE COOLER THAN GOING NUMBERS 
ON MON AND TUE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DISPARITY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE 
MODELS WILL OPT TO LEAVE THEM ALONE FOR NOW.

.STL...NONE

BRITT