000 
FXUS63 KDMX 231948
AFDDSM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
150 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2002

MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPS IN TRANSITION PERIOD ON 
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  ALSO PCPN TIMING AND EXTENT.  OUT FARTHER WILL 
BE AMOUNTS OF MODERATION THIS WEEK AND PCPN CHANCES IF ANY.  

WARM DRY SRLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTN AHD OF 
SHARP COLD FNT INVOF OF CANADIAN BORDER.  NO GREAT MOISTURE ATTM 
HWVR WITH WINDS UP TNGT SHULD BE QUITE MILD.  STARTING OUT WITH HIGH 
LOWS AND LEAN TWD SLOER AVN WULD XPCT TEMPS IN CNTRL AND SE CWA TO 
REACH 50S BFR COLD FNT IMPACTS TEMPS LT SUN AFTN.  ALSO FVR ETA PCPN 
FIELDS AVN APPEARS TOO AGRESSIVE AS HAS BEEN ITS HISTORY THIS 
SEASON.  USUAL SCENARIO APPLIED TO THIS EVENT WHEN LIFT/FORCING IS 
HERE LTL OT NO MOISTURE AND WHEN MOISTURE HERE LTL IF ANY 
LIFT/FORCING. ETA PCPN PATTERN WITH THIS SYSTEMS SEEMS TO BE INLINE 
WITH GOING HISTORY OF THIS SEASON.  MAY TREND TWD LGT SNOW IN NORTH 
WITH FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.  

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STORY ALL THIS WEEK AS ONLY SECOND BLAST OF 
ARCTIC AIR COMES ACRS THE AREA.  TRANSITON PERIOD TMW WILL BE 
TOUGHEST THO AVN FAVORED FOR TIMING OF FNTL PSTN AND WULD XPCT NRN 
PTN OF CWA TO GET NO FARTHER THAN INTO LO 40S PER GUID HWVR SERN CWA 
WL BE DIFFICULT AS MAY SEE SUN ENOUGH FOR RACE NR 60.  SUN GTN 
COOLER THO WINDS ADN CLDS SHULD HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM FREE FALL.  

FOR EXTENDED PERIOD ONCE SYSTEM GOES EAST ARCTIC HI RMNS OVR AREA 
UNTIL AT LEAST MIDWEEK AT WHICH TIME HINT OF NXT SYSTEM MOVIG IN 
UPPER FLO AND RAPID DVLPMNT OF SFC LO OVR SWRN U.S. IN LTR PART OF 
THE WEEK HWVR IA APPEARS OF FRINGES OF THIS SYSTEM WHILE NRN BRANCH 
ROTATES ENE ALG CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER WITH LTL AFFECT OTHER THAN CLDS.  
FVR SLOER MEX TEMP GUID INTO SECOND HLF OF THE WEEK.   

.DSM...NONE

FORSTER