000 
FXUS66 KEKA 150434 RRA
AFDEKA

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
835 PM PST THU FEB 14 2002 

REX BLOCK TYPE PATTERN PERSISTS OVER WEST COAST THIS EVENING AS 
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPIRALS NEAR 36N/128W. TEMPERATURES HEATED UP TO 
OVER 70F ACROSS MUCH OF ZONES 3/4 THIS AFTERNOON...ENOUGH TO 
GENERATE A SUMMER-LIKE LOOKING THERMAL TROF PATTERN THAT SKIPPED OFF 
THE COAST THIS EVENING. IN RESPONSE...A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT HAS 
DEVELOPED AND STRATUS CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTHWARD TO THE IMMEDIATE 
REDWOOD COASTLINE WITH ACV-SFO GRADIENT INDICATING WEAK NEGATIVE AND 
UKI-STS AT -1.3MB. AN OFFSHORE FLOW STILL EXISTS FURTHER UP THE 
COAST NEAR THE ORCA BORDER...BUT IT TOO HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY 
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPSTREAM 
KICKER...THAT WILL START TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW TOWARD THE COAST ON 
FRI...NOW HEADING TOWARD 140W WITH THE STRONGEST ENERGY AND JET 
RATHER FAR SOUTH...NOW NEAR 38N. 

SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL BE EXTENT OF LOW CLOUD/FOG ALONG THE COAST 
OF ZONES 1/2 TONIGHT. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO INCLUDE A MORE 
PREDOMINANT MENTION FOR ZONE 2...BUT IT WILL BE A CLOSER CALL FOR 
MUCH OF REDWOOD COAST AS THE STRATUS TRIES TO PENETRATE JUST INLAND. 
NOT YET CONVINCED HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL REACH FROM KACV AND POINTS 
NORTH. CURRENT EKA PROFILER IS BEGINNING TO SHOW A SHALLOW  
INVERSION...WITH ANY TOPS INDICATED NEAR 800FT. THIS WOULD KEEP ANY 
CLOUD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE...BUT IT WILL COME IN QUITE LOW. 
LOW TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED A TAD UPWARD...WITH 
CURRENT DEW PTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S AND THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE PROJECTED. 

00Z AVN IS NOW CLOSER TO THE ETA/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS...KICKING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW INLAND OVER THE N COAST AS 
AN OPEN WAVE FRI EVE...BRINGING A PERIOD OF VORTICITY ADVECTION AND 
WEAK WARM ADVECTION. AS MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS INCREASES IN THE 
BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE THRU THE 
DAY...FIRST ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THEN TO THE COAST BY FRI NIGHT. 
THEREAFTER...THE MODELS ARE ALSO NOW MORE CONSISTENT TAKING A CLOSED 
UPPER LOW TOWARDS MONTEREY BAY BY 12Z SUN AS THE INCOMING TROF TAKES 
ON A SPLIT FLOW NATURE. THIS WOULD LEAVE MUCH OF EKA CWA WITH A LACK 
OF DYNAMICS AND MINIMAL SURFACE WINDS IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLIER 
PHASED/STRONGER AVN SOLUTION WHICH PRODUCED NEAR GALE FORCE 
CONDITIONS IN OUR COASTAL WATERS. WILL PASS THESE MODEL TRENDS ON TO 
NEXT FORECASTER...WHO MAY NEED TO TINKER WITH CURRENT POPS AND 
MARINE WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. 

WILL TAKE DOWN THE SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH MARINE 
PACKAGE AS BUOYS BELOW 10 FT. WILL ALSO SWING WINDS AROUND TO THE 
SOUTH SOONER...AS SOUTH FLOW HAS REACHED BUOY 22. 

CEC/ACV/EKA 004866 UKI 023866

.EKA...NONE. 

SOROKA 

000 
FXUS66 KEKA 150434
AFDEKA

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
835 PM PST WED FEB 13 2002 

REX BLOCK TYPE PATTERN PERSISTS OVER WEST COAST THIS EVENING AS 
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPIRALS NEAR 36N/128W. TEMPERATURES HEATED UP TO 
OVER 70F ACROSS MUCH OF ZONES 3/4 THIS AFTERNOON...ENOUGH TO 
GENERATE A SUMMER-LIKE LOOKING THERMAL TROF PATTERN THAT SKIPPED OFF 
THE COAST THIS EVENING. IN RESPONSE...A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT HAS 
DEVELOPED AND STRATUS CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTHWARD TO THE IMMEDIATE 
REDWOOD COASTLINE WITH ACV-SFO GRADIENT INDICATING WEAK NEGATIVE AND 
UKI-STS AT -1.3MB. AN OFFSHORE FLOW STILL EXISTS FURTHER UP THE 
COAST NEAR THE ORCA BORDER...BUT IT TOO HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY 
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPSTREAM 
KICKER...THAT WILL START TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW TOWARD THE COAST ON 
FRI...NOW HEADING TOWARD 140W WITH THE STRONGEST ENERGY AND JET 
RATHER FAR SOUTH...NOW NEAR 38N. 

SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL BE EXTENT OF LOW CLOUD/FOG ALONG THE COAST 
OF ZONES 1/2 TONIGHT. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO INCLUDE A MORE 
PREDOMINANT MENTION FOR ZONE 2...BUT IT WILL BE A CLOSER CALL FOR 
MUCH OF REDWOOD COAST AS THE STRATUS TRIES TO PENETRATE JUST INLAND. 
NOT YET CONVINCED HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL REACH FROM KACV AND POINTS 
NORTH. CURRENT EKA PROFILER IS BEGINNING TO SHOW A SHALLOW  
INVERSION...WITH ANY TOPS INDICATED NEAR 800FT. THIS WOULD KEEP ANY 
CLOUD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE...BUT IT WILL COME IN QUITE LOW. 
LOW TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED A TAD UPWARD...WITH 
CURRENT DEW PTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S AND THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE PROJECTED. 

00Z AVN IS NOW CLOSER TO THE ETA/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS...KICKING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW INLAND OVER THE N COAST AS 
AN OPEN WAVE FRI EVE...BRINGING A PERIOD OF VORTICITY ADVECTION AND 
WEAK WARM ADVECTION. AS MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS INCREASES IN THE 
BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE THRU THE 
DAY...FIRST ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THEN TO THE COAST BY FRI NIGHT. 
THEREAFTER...THE MODELS ARE ALSO NOW MORE CONSISTENT TAKING A CLOSED 
UPPER LOW TOWARDS MONTEREY BAY BY 12Z SUN AS THE INCOMING TROF TAKES 
ON A SPLIT FLOW NATURE. THIS WOULD LEAVE MUCH OF EKA CWA WITH A LACK 
OF DYNAMICS AND MINIMAL SURFACE WINDS IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLIER 
PHASED/STRONGER AVN SOLUTION WHICH PRODUCED NEAR GALE FORCE 
CONDITIONS IN OUR COASTAL WATERS. WILL PASS THESE MODEL TRENDS ON TO 
NEXT FORECASTER...WHO MAY NEED TO TINKER WITH CURRENT POPS AND 
MARINE WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. 

WILL TAKE DOWN THE SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH MARINE 
PACKAGE AS BUOYS BELOW 10 FT. WILL ALSO SWING WINDS AROUND TO THE 
SOUTH SOONER...AS SOUTH FLOW HAS REACHED BUOY 22. 

CEC/ACV/EKA 004866 UKI 023866

.EKA...NONE. 

SOROKA