000 
FXUS65 KVEF 222309
AFDLAS

MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
310 PM PST TUE JAN 22 2002

SYNOPSIS...A DRY PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH 
THROUGH THE MOJAVE DESERT TONIGHT BRINGING BRISK NORTH WINDS AND 
COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WEDNESDAY 
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A RIDGE OF HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH 
DECREASING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY REBOUNDING BACK TO 
NORMAL.
 
DISCUSSION...LIFT DUE TO JET AND COLD FRONT PRODUCED A COUPLE OF 
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD BANDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG 
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS OVER LINCOLN COUNTY 
AND PARTS OF NORTHERN CLARK COUNTY. THE LAST COUPLE OF SATELLITE AND 
RADAR FRAMES HAS SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND HOWEVER. ANY SNOW SHOWERS 
SHOULD END QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPWARD FORCING FROM 
THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. MAY HAVE TO MENTION 
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FIRST THING THIS EVENING BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING 
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING/DEVELOPING. MOST ZONES WILL HAVE MOSTLY 
SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY BUT MAIN CONCERN IS THE NORTHERLY WINDS. 
MODELS SHOW A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED JET AXIS MIGRATING FROM WEST TO 
EAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE AND 
FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE GRADIENT AND 850/700 MB WINDS. AVN IS STRONGER 
WITH THESE PARAMETERS THAN ETA AND AVN HAS GENERALLY BEEN TOO STRONG 
WITH THESE SITUATIONS THIS WINTER. THEREFORE WILL OPT NOT TO ISSUE 
WIND ADVISORY BUT WILL HAVE WINDS JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG 
THE RIVER. STILL SOMEWHAT OF A NORTHERLY GRADIENT LINGERING 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME BRISK WINDS IN PLACES. GRADIENT FINALLY 
RELAXES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM A BIT. 
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND WARMING CONTINUES FRIDAY UNDER 
FLATTENING RIDGE. TROUGH APPROACHES COAST SATURDAY WITH MOISTURE 
BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. WILL 
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SIERRA AND NORTHERN NYE COUNTY AND 
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT A CHANCE 
OF SHOWERS ACROSS ENTIRE NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA SUNDAY 
THROUGH TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ALL 
ZONES WILL BE COOLER DURING THIS TIME FRAME.   JMH

.LAS...NONE.