000 
FXUS63 KFGF 230922
AFDFAR

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
320 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2002
 
FORECAST CHALLENGE MAINLY CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND MINOR SNOW 
CHANCES.

MODELS SHOWING ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ON LOW LEVEL FEATURES WITH 
NEXT SHORT WAVE. AVN A TOUCH BETTER ON LOW LEVEL TEMP FIELD HOWEVER 
FAVORED ETA ON SFC FEATURES IN EARLY GOING SO WILL LIKELY USE MIX. 

FOR TODAY SFC HIGH TO SETTLE IN OVER FORECAST AREA. MSAS INDICATING 
MAX PRESSURE RISES AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION 
EXITING SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA. WINDS TAMING DOWN AND WILL LET WIND 
CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE AS WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING DAY. 
CLOUD TRENDS MAY BE TRICKY TODAY HOWEVER CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATING MVFR/IFR CLOUD SHIELD FROM ND/MT BORDER EAST AND ETA TIME 
SECTION RETAINS LOW LEVEL RH. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN MOCLDY FCST AND 
SEE HOW IT TURNS OUT. NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE MAINTAINS 
TODAY AND WITH CLOUDS WILL SEE ONLY MINOR TEMP RECOVERY. TRICKIEST 
AREA WILL BE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE TEMPS STILL IN TEENS HOWEVER 
EXPECT READINGS INTO SINGLE DIGITS BY FCST ISSUANCE. KMVX-88D 
CONTINUES TO SHOW WK RETURNS SO WILL MAINTAIN FLURRIES FOR TODAY.

SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN TIER 
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT POSIT DIFFERENCES ON SFC LOW BETWEEN ETA 
AND AVN HOWEVER WITH STRONGEST BAROCLINICITY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA 
AND DYNAMICS FROM SHORT WAVE NORTH OF BORDER WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS 
ACROSS THE NORTH ONLY. WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE 
WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN CURRENT 
EXPECTED MINS WITH LESS WIND. 

WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO GET GOING ON THURSDAY HOWEVER WITH 
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE AND WEAK MIXING WILL HOLD TEMPS AT OR 
BELOW COLDER FWC NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IGNORING BIG WARMUP FROM MAV 
NUMBERS.

STRONGER MIXING...W-SW FLOW AND 850 TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE ZERO SHOULD 
RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY.

MILD ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEEKEND. COLD FRONT PASSAGE 
STILL SLATED FOR SUN/MON HOWEVER MRF NOT VERY ROBUST ON PCPN OR 
STRONG COOLING. CURRENT EXTENDED REFLECTS THIS SO NO CHANGES 
PLANNED.    
 
.FGF...NONE.

VOELKER