000 
FXUS63 KOAX 220858
AFDOMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2002

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES THRU DAY 7 AND ALSO THE 
SLGT CHC OF LIGHT PCPN WITH UPR TROF PASSAGE LATE TNGT INTO EARLY 
WED.  AVN APPEARS TOO COOL WITH 850 MB TEMP FCST...ALTHO 06Z META IS 
NOW COOLER AND A LTL FASTER WITH FRONT THIS AFTN THAN 00Z RUN.  AVN 
IS ALSO POSSIBLY A LTL TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH POST FRONTAL QPF LATER 
TNGT.  GENERALLY LEANED TWD ETA THRU THU AM THEN USED AVN/MRF FOR 
EXTENDED.  

SHORT TERM...ALTHO AN INCREASE IN CI IS ALMOST CERTAIN TDA...SINCE 
WE ARE CURRENTLY CLR...STLT TRENDS AND MODEL FCSTS DO NOT REALLY 
SUGGEST A DENSE OVERCAST.  THUS WITH WARMER START TO DAY THAN MONDAY 
AND 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE...8-10 DEG C...PARKED OVER AREA AT 
18Z...APPEARS MOST AREAS SHOULD WARM TO AT LEAST MONDAYS READINGS.  
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE FAR NWRN ZONES WHERE SOME AFTN COOL 
ADVCTN COULD TEMPER AFTN RISE.  WILL BOOST MOST HIGHS AND THIS COULD 
PUT LNK/OMA RECORDS IN REACH.  

FOR TNGT INTO WED AM...STILL SOME CHC OF LGT POST FRONTAL PCPN WITH 
WK HIGH LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SRN PART OF UPR TROF LINGERING TO 
OUR WEST.  HOWEVER...AGAIN AVN SEEMS A OVERDONE WITH QPF AS HGT FALL 
CENTER AND MAIN VORT MAX SHEARS OFF N OF FCST AREA IN NRN STREAM.  
WL KEEP MAINLY TRACE TYPE MENTIONED TNGT CNTRL/N AND SLGT CHC OF 
LGT RW/SW IN THE MORNING S ON WED.  WOULD BE TEMPTED TO BOOST TEMPS 
ON WED...BUT WITH SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR LOOMING OVR ND...JUST ENOUGH OF 
THIS MAY BE TAPPED TO KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK WED. 

TEMPS THEN MODERATE THU INTO SAT WITH ALL INDICATIONS POINTING TO 
FRI AND SAT BEING A REPEAT OF YDA AND TDA TEMP WISE.  BOOSTED MOST 
TEMPERATURES THOSE DAYS.  EVEN THO AVN/ETA CLOSE OFF OR ATTEMPT TO 
CLOSE OFF LOW PRES IN THE SRN STREAM THU...FAST AND BECOMING 
MORE ZONAL FLOW IN THE NRN STREAM SHOULD CUT OFF ANY CHC OF PCPN AND 
WL DROP MENTION OF LGT PCPN THU NGT.  LATEST MRF NOW SUGGESTING SUN 
COULD ALSO BE VERY MILD AND THIS IS EVEN SUPPORTED BY ECMWF.  
SO...BOOSTED HIGHS ON SUN BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO AS 
WARM AS SAT ATTM.  TOO MANY UNCERTAINTIES THEN EXIST IN BATTLE BTWN 
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR AND VERY MILD PAC AIR TO CHANGE FCST FOR MONDAY.

.OMA...NONE
CHERMOK