204 
FXUS62 KILM 281911
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC
211 PM EST WED NOV 28 2001

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT 
IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS TIGHT ALONG THE 
EASTERN SEABOARD.  SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE LOWER 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BE SHUNTED 
NORTHEASTWARD.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BEST 
DYNAMICS WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WILL INCLUDE A 20 
PERCENT POP FOR FRIDAY IN LIGHT OF EXPECTED WEAK LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE AND WEAKLY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT.

OTHER THAN 20 PERCENT POPS IN THE EVENING FRIDAY...EXTENDED WILL BE 
DRY.  A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. 
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CWF: RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WATERS PRESENTLY.  WILL INITIALIZE WITH 
VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS TONIGHT.  FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME 
SOUTHERLY BY DAYS END THURSDAY WITH A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST THU 
NIGHT.  WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY FRI AFTERNOON.  SPEEDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 KT BY FRI AM BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA 
THRESHOLD. NO FLAGS.

FCSTID = 31
ILM   56  79  58  73 /   0   0  10  20
LBT   55  80  57  72 /   0   0  10  20
FLO   56  80  57  74 /   0   0  10  20
MYR   57  76  59  73 /   0   0  10  20

.ILM...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

RAN