630 
FXUS65 KVEF 152206
AFDLAS

MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
207 PM PST THU NOV 15 2001

SYNOPSIS..WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT 
WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL 
THROUGH SATURDAY. 
 
DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA 
WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE 
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY 
ABOVE NORMALS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. 
MODELS SHOW MAINLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING OVER THE AREA FOR 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH DRY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE MAIN PROBLEMS LOOK TO 
BE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE 
TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST NEXT WEEK.

IN THE EXTENDED...MODELS NOT IN THAT MUCH AGREEMENT GOING INTO THE 
THANKSGIVING DAY FORECAST. MRF IS SHOWING THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN 
AND A GOOD PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT THE NEWEST AVN ALONG 
WITH THE OTHER LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA 
FOR A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. WENT MORE WITH THE DRY FORECAST WITH 
TEMPERATURE NEAR NORMALS. 

.LAS...NONE.