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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDMAF Product Timestamp: 2001-09-15 20:40 UTC
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FXUS64 KMAF 152040 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 316 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2001 MORE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE ALLOWING FOR MORE HEATING... AND AFTERNOON T-STORM DEVELOPMENT TO GET UNDERWAY...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE MOUNTAINS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OUTPUT HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED FROM EX TROPICAL SYSTEM EVO MOVE WEST FROM THE BAJA. IT IS ONLY A LOW LEVEL SWIRL WITH NO DISCERNIBLE CONVECTION. CLOSER TO HOME...AN AREA OF MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS KEEPING TEMPS A BIT COOLER EXTENDED SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 20 EAST OF MONAHANS. THE ANALYSIS OF 12Z UPPER AIR DATA ALONG WITH MODEL INITIALIZATION INDICATED BROAD UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE SW USA/N MEXICO. THE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST...WHILE A MORE STORMY...ZONAL FLOW STREAM PREVAILS NORTH. SKIES ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD CLEAR MORE...AS THE UPPER MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTOPICS DIMINISHES. HOWEVER A SOUTH TO SE SURFACE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS FOR THE SHORT TERM. A COLD FRONT WAS NOTED IN THE ETA OUT TO 60 HOURS NEARING THE SOUTH PLAINS. PER EXTENDED AVN...AND THE 00Z MRF RUN...IT SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE HERE ON TUE/WED...WITH COOLER TEMPS AND MORE LIKELY DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THINK A TIMING FASTER THAN THE AVN WOULD BE PRUDENT. FIRST GUESS NUMBERS BELOW...AND THANKS LBB FOR COORDINATION. MAF 67/89/66/92 2222 LSA 64/87/63/90 2222 6R6 68/90/67/92 21-- MRF 57/84/58/85 22-- CNM 67/91/65/95 2222 .MAF... TX...NONE. NM...NONE. BOYD