000 
FXUS61 KCAR 142127 CCA
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
312 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2001

CORRECTED TO ADD FROST ADVISORY TO HEADLINES SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...AND RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL
BRING A COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH SOME FROST IN NORTHERN MAINE...
ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AND OPEN LOCATIONS. THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHERN
MAINE.

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES SHOW SCT-BKN CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE...WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX CROSSING
THE REGION THIS EVENING. AS THE VORT MAX EXITS TO THE EAST TONIGHT...
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR. ETA/AVN SHOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES RIDGING INTO THE REGION. THIS SLIGHTLY WEAKER GRADIENT THAN LAST
NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.
ATTM...EXPECT FROST IN MANY NORTHERN LOCATIONS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN LOW-
LYING AREAS AND IN OPEN FIELDS.

THE AVN AND ETA DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE AVN BRINGS
THE NEXT SYSTEM IN SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN BUILDS IN HIGH PRESSURE ON
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE ETA IS SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM...DROPPING A 500
MB TROF OVER NORTHERN MAINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE CANADIAN/UKMET SEEM TO
SUPPORT THE ETA SOLUTION...SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ETA FOR THIS FORECAST.
WILL BRING IN CLOUD COVER SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN CHANCE SHOWERS ON SUNDAY
UP NORTH. FAVORING FWC GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY...AND THE MAV FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

EXPECT CLEARING ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BEHIND THE TROF. THEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AGAIN ON MONDAY. AVN SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY
NIGHT.

.EXTENDED...
MRF/GEM/CANADIAN/EUROPEAN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...AND WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WILL GO
BELOW MEX GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. ATTM...WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE. WILL
SLOW DOWN THE MRF (THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS)...HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY
TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE LONG TERM TRACK OF GABRIELLE...BUT
BEST CONSENSUS WOULD TRACK IT OUT TO SEA...PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST
ON TUESDAY. THE SITUATION STILL BEARS WATCHING...BUT IF GABRIELLE DOES TAKE
A MORE COASTAL TRACK IT WOULD LIKELY LOOSE MUCH OF ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS.

.COASTAL WATERS...WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR SEAS.

.CAR...FROST ADVISORY ZNS 1>6-10
       SCA.

APFFEL