000 
FXUS65 KVEF 132219
AFDLAS

MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
320 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2001

SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER 
WESTERN ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF 
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NEVADA/ARIZONA BORDER. A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW 
ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD OF THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN THE 
WEEKEND AND BRING INCREASING WIND WITH A COOLING TREND.

DISCUSSION...THE MOST INTERESTING FEATURE TO NOTE THIS EVENING IS 
STILL THE CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN BAJA AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE 18Z ETA APPEARED TO HAVE A GOOD 
INITIALIZATION OF THE SYSTEM WITH A SECONDARY VORT MAX AROUND LAKE 
HAVASU. IT IS MORE RESTRICTIVE WITH THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE MID 
LEVEL MOISTURE THAN THE 12Z ETA AND A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE AVN. THE 
FINE LINE FOR THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE THE NV/AZ 
BORDER. DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED TO THE LOWER 60S AT BLYTHE AND THE 
MID 50S AT NEEDLES AND EVEN AROUND 50 IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THE 
GOES PRECIPITABLE WATER SOUNDER ALSO SHOWS VALUES OF AN INCH OR MORE 
SOUTH AND EAST OF LAS VEGAS. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE 
STABLE WEST OF THE COLORADO RIVER AND THAT REMAINS THE CASE 
THROUGH SATURDAY. THAT SAID...HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS 
FOR MAINLY MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE EASTERN ARM OF LAKE MEAD AND 
NORTHEAST CLARK COUNTY THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 
REMAINS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING AND 
INCREASING WINDS AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH NEARS.

NO REAL CHANGES TO THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY STILL SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ADAIR

LAS...NONE.