000 
FXUS65 KMSO 072008
AFDMSO

WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
210 PM MDT THU JUN 7 2001

CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FEATURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL TARGET THE WEST-CENTRAL MONTANA ZONES...WHERE DECENT
INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS EXISTS. ELSEWHERE...SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NW TIP OF MONTANA WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A JET EXITS AND
SUN SETS. CLEARING EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH A BROAD FLAT RIDGE
OVER THE REGION.

FRI/FRI NIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...
OPENING UP A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE
WITH SOME HEALTHY CAPE VALUES AND LOW LIS FOR LATE IN THE DAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SOME CONVERGENCE...WITH ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MIGRATING ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BEGIN IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN PEAK DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.

SAT...THE DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE EXITING THE NORTHEAST
BY SUNRISE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT IN A SW FLOW
ALOFT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOOKING FOR A MODEST COOLING TREND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...BUT ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
SOUTH. MSJ

EXTENDED...12Z AVN CONSISTENT WITH UK/EURO...BRINGING BC UPPER LOW
INLAND ON DAY 3. FAVOR A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION THAN THE MRF
SUGGEST. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR COULD BRING CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH SHOWERS ELSEWHERE DAY 4. WILL
ALSO MENTION BREEZY CONDITIONS BOTH DAY 3/4. UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW
RETURNS DAY 5 AS TROF KICKS OUT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED DAY
6/7 AS RIDGES B3UILDS OFF THE COAST. WILL KEEP IT DRY WITH SLIGHT
WARMING TREND. STOLL