119 
FXUS63 KDMX 061919
AFDDSM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
220 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2001

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TIMING OF PCPN INTO AND THRU THE CWA TNGT AND 
THU MRNG.

MODELS AGREE THAT SYSTEM NOW OVER THE DAKS WILL SWING THRU THE STATE 
WITH THE DVLPMNT OF SCTD SHWRS AND PSBLY SOME TSTMS LTR TNGT AND 
LINGERING INTO THU MRNG.  ALL MODELS LAITTLE DIFFERENT ON TIMING AS 
AVN APPEARS TOO FAST CONSIDERING LTST PATTERN.  STLT WULD INDICATE 
MESOETA/ETA HAVE BEST HANDLE ON MOVEMENT AND LOCATION.  NGM 
IGNORED.  LOOK AT UPPER SUPPORT INIT WEAK THO SOME COMPRESSION OF 
FIELDS WITH TIME AHD OF FNT/BOUNDARY.  FORCING IN MID LVLS LIMITED 
WITH BEST FORCING N AND W OF THE STATE. ATTM LOOKS LIKE PCPN SHULD 
ENTER/DVLP IN NWRN PORTION FO CWA BFR 06Z WITH CNTRL CWA AFTER MIDN 
AND FAR SE TWD MRNG.  WILL ONLY INSERT POPS NOT AREAL TERMS.  
AMOUNTS ATTM LOOK LIMITED SO QPF NOT FACTOR FOR RIVERS.  ANY HEAVIER 
RAINFALL WILL BE VERY ISOLD AND WOULD ONLY AFFECT VERY SMALL CREEKS.
WITHOUT REAL DRYING XPCT TEMPS OVER FCST PD TO BE CLOSER TO COOLER 
MAVS.  

LOOK AHEAD TO EFP VEYR UNSETTLED WITH WET LOOK FOR THE WEEKEND AS
PERSISTENT SERIES OF S/W OVER THE RIDGE WEAKENING IT WITH TIME.
BELIEVE NOW WEEKEND LOOKS WET HWVR IN LTR PDS OF THE EFP WEAKER S/W 
PASS MAINLY E OF THE CWA AND HI FINALLY TAKES OVER SO COULD BE A FEW 
DRY DAYS.  AGAIN WILL SHAVE TEMPS ABIT THO AS WE MOVE INTO SECOND 
WEEK OF JUNE ANY SUN WILL CAUSE QUICK RISE.  WILL GO WITH TREND OF 
GUID IN WARMING UP THRU MCUH OF THE WEEK THEN COOL DOWN WITH FNT 
ARND MID WEEK.

.DSM...NONE

FORSTER