AFOS product AFDLOX
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLOX
Product Timestamp: 2001-03-06 22:00 UTC

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FXUS66 KLOX 062158
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PST TUE MAR 6 2001

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN IN PLACE WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS ROTATING
AROUND IT. MODELS KEEP WANTING TO BRING IT INLAND BUT IT IS RELUCTANT
TO DO SO. UNTIL IT DOES MOVE EAST, THE WHOLE CWA WILL BE UNDER A THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW WILL ASSUME THAT THE LOW
WILL FINALLY MAKE THE MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT I
COULD EASILY SEE THIS SAME SCENARIO REPEATING ITSELF WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH A DECREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. I DONT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT,
BUT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD DROP HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN SHORT PERIODS OF
TIME. WILL GO AHEAD AND LET THE FLOOD WATCH RUN ITS COURSE UNTIL 4 PM
TODAY AND PROBABLY CAN BE LET GO AT THAT TIME. SANTA YNEZ RIVER IS
STILL WELL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE, BUT WILL BE RECEEDING AND I DONT EXPECT
PRECIP AMOUNTS TO GENERATE FURTHER PROBLEMS.

WE ARE HOPING FOR A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY, THOUGH EVEN IF THE LOW DOES MOVE
EAST OVERNIGHT, LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS WILL BE UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW AND
THIS COULD BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT AND SNOW LEVELS WILL STILL BE QUITE HIGH. WILL JUST KEEP A
HIGHER CHANCE OF PRECIP THERE THROUGH THE DAY.

THURSDAY LOOKS PLEASANT AND MILD BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FRIDAY. 12Z AVN WAS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE 00Z MRF, BUT DOES INDICATE
A PRETTY DEEP LOW MOVING OVER POINT CONCEPTION AND DOWN INTO THE LA
AREA LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS A LITTLE MORE LIMITED AND
LOW LVL FLOW IS MUCH MORE WESTERLY RATHER THAN SOUTHERLY, BUT IT DOES
LOOK LIKE IT WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA. THE MAIN
CONCERN THOUGH IS WHETHER IT WILL MOVE EVEN SLOWER OR CUT OFF FURTHER
OFFSHORE, DELAYING PRECIP INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS ONE ALSO LOOKS QUITE A BIT
COLDER THAN OUR PRESENT STORM AND THIS SHOULD BRING SNOW TO MUCH LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

LAX 8200. WOFFORD

.LAX...FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SANTA YNEZ RIVER...SEE LAXFLWLAX/LAXFLSLAX
       FLOOD WATCH...SEE LAXFLSLAX.
       WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...SEE LAXWSWLAX.
       SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SEE LAXCWFLAX.