000 
FXUS63 KAPX 081914
AFDAPN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
314 PM EDT SUN OCT 8 2000

LAKE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO LOSE IS PUNCH AS THE SFC RIDGE TO THE 
WEST IS GAINING STRENGTH. H5 TROUGH IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. 
250 MB 80KT LFQ IS OVER N WISCONSIN. N FLOW AT 850 AND SFC CONTINUE 
TO SUSTAIN MID LAKE (MICHIGAN) BAND AND A FEW SMALLER BANDS IN NW 
LOWER NEAR KTVC AND KCAD. 

MODELS TODAY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJOR DIFFERENCE BEING 
BETWEEN THE ETA AND AVN WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER MICHIGAN ON 
MONDAY WITH THE EXITING H5 LOW. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PACKAGE 
WILL BE ENDING OF THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION. 

TONIGHT/MONDAY...NORTH FLOW WILL BECOME NW DURING THE EVENING. THIS 
WILL BRING THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS INTO NW LOWER. DELTA TS WILL BEGIN 
TO FALL OFF OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO WARM INTO MONDAY (FROM 16 TO 
7C IN E UPPER AND FROM 20 TO 10C IN N LOWER). INVERSION HEIGHTS ALSO 
BEGIN TO FALL AS WELL FROM 5000 TO 6000 FEET DOWN TO 1800 TO 2800 
FEET. AIR WILL BE RATHER DRY AND THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY 
ACCUMULATION. RH IN THE 900-700 LAYER WILL START AROUND 50% AND FALL 
TO 25% BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL DECISION TREE SHOWS THAT ONLY 
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED AND THEN LIMIT THE CONVECTION 
WITH THE MOISTURE, SO THE EXPECTATIONS WOULD BE LOW FOR ANY 
ACCUMULATIONS. THUS WILL GO WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING 
WITH FLURRIES EARLY MONDAY. WILL GO BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE 
AFTERNOON IN NW LOWER WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING IN. WILL CONTINUE WITH 
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT IN NE LOWER AND BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY AS IT 
TAKES A BIT LONGER FOR THE DRY AIR TO MOVE IN NE LOWER. 

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MAJOR LEAGUE DRY AIR (850 RH 
<10% AND 850-500 LAYER RH AROUND 10%) MOVES INTO THE AREA AS THE 
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE LAKE FROM THE SFC UP TO H5. 850 
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY. CYCLONIC 
CURVATURE APPEARS AT H8 AND SFC, BUT DRY AIR WILL PROBABLY NOT LET 
ANYTHING BUT CLOUDS FORM. WILL KEEP TUESDAY NIGHT DRY. 

TEMPERATURES LOOK PRETTY GOOD COMPARED TO GOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT 
AND MONDAY. FEEL THAT FWC AND MAV NUMBERS MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM IN 
NW LOWER FOR MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS LOOK GOOD FOR TUESDAY. LOWS ON 
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE. WILL LEAVE THE GOING 
FORECAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKY LOW DAYTIME 
RH WITH NO MOISTURE RETURNING OVERNIGHT SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP 
LOWER THAN THE NUMBERS. 

EXTENDED...MRF AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND AS THE H5 LOW 
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA DROPS INTO THE PAC NW BUILDING THE RIDGE IN 
THE PLAINS AND THE GREAT LAKES. SO THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD 
WITH THE CURRENT LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES PULLING NE AND THE RIDGE 
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK. BY SATURDAY, THE 
LOW THAT DROPS INTO THE PAC NW WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND 
APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES. MRF AND ECMWF AGREE THAT WARM FRONT PASSES 
THROUGH THE LAKES FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THAT CHANCE WOULD CONTINUE AS THE CO#LD FRONT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING N OF LAKE SUPERIOR MOVES 
THROUGH MICHIGAN. 

.APX...NONE.

LUTZ