000 
FXUS62 KMLB 010031
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
830 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2000

SPORADIC SHOWERS WERE INDICATED ON LOCAL RADAR WITH A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES CROSSING NEWD OVER INTERSTATE 95 IN INDIAN RIVER AND ST
LUCIE COUNTIES. RETROGRESSION CONTINUES WESTWARD OF UPPER LOW NORTH
OF THE STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTH FL. STRONG
SLY FLOW ALOFT NOTED ON 22Z CANAVERAL SOUNDING WITH SW COMPONENT AT
LOWER LEVELS. IT APPEARS THAT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE
PENINSULA WILL BE NEUTRAL FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...SO IT WILL
BE A MATTER OF GETTING A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED
PRECIPITATION. NO EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TODAY COUPLED WITH LACK OF
SMALL SCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTION...AND HIGH OVERCAST CAST A PALL ON
THURSDAY RAIN CHANCES.

WITH WEAKENING SURFACE GRADIENT...FRIDAYS FORECAST IS CALLING FOR A
SEA BREEZE SOUTH OF ABOUT VOLUSIA COUNTY...SO MAYBE THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO HELP PRODUCE WIDER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ACTIVITY NOT FORMING UNTIL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON CONSIDERING WHAT HAS HAPPENED LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS.

WILL TWEAK EVENING PRECIP ON ZONE UPDATE.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS IS
PUTTING A SQUEEZE ON THE SURFACE GRADIENT. BUOY DATA AND SHIP
REPORTS STEADILY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OFFSHORE WATERaS. WILL ADJUST WIND IN MARINE AREAS TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT C-MAN AND BUOY DATA.

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...PENDERGRAST
AVIATION/FIRE WX...BLOTTMAN