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363 
FXUS63 KOAX 160817
AFDOMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 AM CDT FRI JUN 16 2000

...FORECAST CHALLENGES...PRECIP THIS AM AND CHC OF PRECIP 
TAF...CLDCOVER...TEMPS...AND NRN EXTENT OF PRECIP SAT.

...SYNOPSIS...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THE CDFNT HAD 
PROGRESSED TO MKC WITH SFC HI PRES BUILDING IN FM WY AND WRN NEB.
SHRA WERE NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA 
WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER NEAR THE NEB/KS BORDER.  THE UA ANALYSIS 
HAD A STG 145KT JET DIVING IN FM THE PACIFIC NW ACRS NEB AND THIS 
LIKELY AIDING THE POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION.

...FORECAST...THE ETA/AVN/NGM HAVE A MEAN LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE FCST 
AREA THROUGH THE PD.  THE PRESSURE PATTERN IS A WEAK ONE WITH HIGH 
PRESSURE DOMINATING WITH COOLER END OF APRIL/MAY-LIKE TEMPS.  RECORD 
LOWS ARE IN THE 40S AND DONT LOOK QUITE REACHABLE SAT AM.  MODELS 
ARE CLOSE AND ONLY SIG DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE HANDLING OF THE WAVE 
THAT PRIMARILY EFFECTS KS/MO SAT.  THE AVN IS STRGR...DEVELOPING A 
CLOSED 700 MB LOW...RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION FARTHER N INTO NEB.  

SHORT-TERM...COUPLED JET STRUCTURE OVR NEB AND IOWA AIDING THE LIFT 
OVER THE AREA.  AS THIS FEATURE BECOMES LESS EFFECTIVE OVER THE NEXT 
FEW HRS...EXPECT THE SHRA TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS 
THE MORNING PROGRESSES. ENOUGH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN OMA-LNK 
ZONES TO INCLUDE MAINLY SPRINKLES IN FCST WITH A FEW SHOWERS. WILL 
LEAVE WDLY SCT AM SHRA FOR THE SRN GROUP OF ZONES.  THIS 
AFT...ENOUGH RISK FOR SHRA OVR THE NRN ZONES TO INCLUDE 20/30 POPS.

EXPECT MORE CLDS THAN SUN TODAY AND CURRENT TEMP FCST IN THE 70S 
MOST AREAS LOOKS RSNBL AND IS CLOSE TO GUID.  TON...EXPECT MOST LOW 
TEMPS FM THE UPR 40S TO THE LWR 50S WITH LIGHT WNDS.  WITH SOME 
CLDCVR...CONDITIONS NOT IDEAL FOR REALIZING COLEST TEMPS.  MORE CLDS 
AND COOL TEMPS FOR SAT.  SRN ZONES MOST AT RISK FOR PRECIP AND WILL 
INCLUDE HIGHEST POPS THERE.

UPR TROF EXITS THE AREA SUN AM WITH SHRTWV RIDGING FOR MON AND TUE.  
SOME RISK OF PRECIP EACH DAY...WITH EARLY SUN AND TUES THE MOST 
LIKELY PDS.

.OMA...        

ZAPOTOCNY
000 
FXUS63 KOAX 160817
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 AM CDT FRI JUN 16 2000

...FORECAST CHALLENGES...PRECIP THIS AM AND CHC OF PRECIP 
TAF...CLDCOVER...TEMPS...AND NRN EXTENT OF PRECIP SAT.

...SYNOPSIS...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THE CDFNT HAD 
PROGRESSED TO MKC WITH SFC HI PRES BUILDING IN FM WY AND WRN NEB.
SHRA WERE NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA 
WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER NEAR THE NEB/KS BORDER.  THE UA ANALYSIS 
HAD A STG 145KT JET DIVING IN FM THE PACIFIC NW ACRS NEB AND THIS 
LIKELY AIDING THE POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION.

...FORECAST...THE ETA/AVN/NGM HAVE A MEAN LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE FCST 
AREA THROUGH THE PD.  THE PRESSURE PATTERN IS A WEAK ONE WITH HIGH 
PRESSURE DOMINATING WITH COOLER END OF APRIL/MAY-LIKE TEMPS.  RECORD 
LOWS ARE IN THE 40S AND DON'T LOOK QUITE REACHABLE SAT AM.  MODELS 
ARE CLOSE AND ONLY SIG DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE HANDLING OF THE WAVE 
THAT PRIMARILY EFFECTS KS/MO SAT.  THE AVN IS STRGR...DEVELOPING A 
CLOSED 700 MB LOW...RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION FARTHER N INTO NEB.  

SHORT-TERM...COUPLED JET STRUCTURE OVR NEB AND IOWA AIDING THE LIFT 
OVER THE AREA.  AS THIS FEATURE BECOMES LESS EFFECTIVE OVER THE NEXT 
FEW HRS...EXPECT THE SHRA TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS 
THE MORNING PROGRESSES. ENOUGH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN OMA-LNK 
ZONES TO INCLUDE MAINLY SPRINKLES IN FCST WITH A FEW SHOWERS. WILL 
LEAVE WDLY SCT AM SHRA FOR THE SRN GROUP OF ZONES.  THIS 
AFT...ENOUGH RISK FOR SHRA OVR THE NRN ZONES TO INCLUDE 20/30 POPS.

EXPECT MORE CLDS THAN SUN TODAY AND CURRENT TEMP FCST IN THE 70S 
MOST AREAS LOOKS RSNBL AND IS CLOSE TO GUID.  TON...EXPECT MOST LOW 
TEMPS FM THE UPR 40S TO THE LWR 50S WITH LIGHT WNDS.  WITH SOME 
CLDCVR...CONDITIONS NOT IDEAL FOR REALIZING COLEST TEMPS.  MORE CLDS 
AND COOL TEMPS FOR SAT.  SRN ZONES MOST AT RISK FOR PRECIP AND WILL 
INCLUDE HIGHEST POPS THER.E.

UPR TROF EXITS THE AREA SUN AM WITH SHRTWV RIDGING FOR MON AND TUE.  
SOME RISK OF PRECIP EACH DAY...WITH EARLY SUN AND TUES THE MOST 
LIKELY PDS.

.OMA...        

ZAPOTOCNY