000 
FXUS63 KFSD 181130
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
620 AM CDT THU MAY 18 2000

HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW OAX'S LEAD AND ISSUE A WIND ADV FOR SE HALF 
OF THE CWA. 50 KT WINDS PICKED ON THE 88D VWP AT 3K AGL AND WORRIED 
THAT MIXING WL BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC. 06Z MESOETA 
CONTINUES TO SHOW SFC WINDS TO PICK UP AT 30KT SUSTAINED FOR THE 
LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER THIS 
AFTN...AND SOME DISCUSSION TO HOW LONG WIND ADV CRITERIA WL BE MET 
TDY. HOWEVER...WITH THE POTENTIAL AS STRONG AS IT IS FOR THE WINDS 
WOULD RATHER SEE DAY CREW BE MORE CONCERNED ABT WHEN TO CANCEL ADV 
RATHER THAN WONDERING IF ONE SHOULD BE ISSUED.

ALSO...LOOKING AT THE LATEST MRF MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED. 80S 
IN PRVS FCST FOR SUN/MON LOOKED WAY OVERDONE. ALSO SAW SOME 
POTENTIAL FOR A CHC OF TSTMS SAT NGT...BUT SINCE CHC IS PBLY ONLY 
AROUND 30% IN THE NRN CWA WL LET DAY FCSTR DECIDE IF WORTHY OF 
PLACING IN PKG.

.FSD...WIND ADV TDY  SE SD...SW MN...EXTRME NE NEB...NW IA

BR