000 
FXUS62 KMLB 141932
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
232 PM EST TUE MAR 14 2000

TONIGHT-THU...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC 
AND DRAGS ITS RIDGE AXIS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA WED 
NIGHT AND THU. SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST IN 
RESPONSE...AND INCREASE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF NEXT 
COLD FRONT. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH STALLED AND DYING 
FRONT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA STRAITS MAY BE ADVECTED 
NORTHWEST IN DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW. WITH SUCH A FAVORABLE 
TRAJECTORY FOR COASTAL SHOWERS...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT SPEED AND 
MOISTURE PRESENT...WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST 
WED NIGHT AND THU. AVN APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE WED 
NIGHT AND THU BRINGING A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES TOWARD THE PENINSULA 
...ONE NORTHEAST FROM THE DYING FRONT OVER THE FL STRAITS AND THE 
OTHER EAST ACROSS THE GULF...AND PHASING THEM OVER EC FL. THIS DOES 
NOT APPEAR REASONABLE AND WILL LEAN TOWARD ETA/NGM. GUIDANCE TEMPS 
THOUGH DO LOOK REASONABLE SHOWING A WARMING TREND...ESPECIALLY AT 
NIGHT...WITH MIN/MAX TEMPS RISING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WED 
THROUGH THU.  

FRI-SUN...INCREASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FRI... 
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA 
SATURDAY AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. MRF FINALLY 
APPEARS TO BE SHOWING A LITTLE BIT OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE 
FACE OF IT...THOUGH THE DETAILS REMAIN DIFFERENT. PAST COUPLE RUNS 
HAVE DEVELOPED A WAVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF 
SOUTH FL. BOTTOM LINE IS..AND I DO NOT WANT TO GET ANYONES HOPE UP 
(OR DOWN)...THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOAKING RAIN THIS WEEKEND. WILL KEEP 
MENTION OF RAIN FOR SAT AND INCLUDE SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY...MAINLY 
EARLY.

MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEAST BY THU AND INCREASING AS 
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. COASTAL SHOWERS 
A GOOD BET BY WED NIGHT. 

PRELIM CCF...
DAB UB 057/076 062/080 062 28002
MCO UB 057/081 063/082 063 28000
MLB BB 062/079 066/081 066 28002

.MLB...NONE.

AVIATION/FIRE WX...GLITTO
PUBLIC/MARINE...KELLY