675 
FXUS62 KMLB 040644
AFDMLB
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
243 AM EDT WED AUG 4 1999

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION OVER CAPE CANAVERAL RAPIDLY DISSIPATING. A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A WEAK LOW JSUT E 
OF THE COAST AND IS WHAT PROBABLY KEPT ACTVTY CONTINUING INTO THE 
EARLY MORNING.  

TODAY...MODELS KEEP SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND DEEP
MOISTURE(OVER 2 INCHES PWATS) WILL REMAIN. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AGAIN TODAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS DOWN LIKE TUESDAY.
THE CLOUDS REALLY KEPT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOW ON TUESDAY AND WILL 
LIKELY HAVE A SIMILAR AFFECT TODAY. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND MID 
LEVEL TROF/SHEAR AXIS RIGHT THROUGH CENTRAL FL SHOULD RESULT IN 
BETTER COVERAGE TODAY BUT WILL GO BELOW THE RATHER HIGH GUID POPS. 
AGREE WITH MODELS IN HAVING HIGHEST POPS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS DUE 
TO DEEPER MOISTURE. SFC TROF POSITION WILL FAVOR AN EARLY ECSB N OF 
THE CAPE AND STEERING FLOW N OF AXIS WILL KEEP ACTVTY AWAY FM SHORE 
IN AFTN. MAY WORD VOLUSIA CTY AS MAINLY INTERIOR PCPN.

TONIGHT AND THU...A NEARLY STATIONARY SFC THRU UPPER LEVEL 
TROF/SHEAR AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL FL. MID LEVEL VRT AXIS 
CONTINUES TO ELONGATE THRU 48 HRS AND WHILE NOT ASSOCIATED W/ LARGE 
AMTS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE UVM OR MID LEVEL COOLING SHOULD FAVOR HIER 
THAN CLIMO POPS. BOTH NGM/ETA INDICATE BEST DEEP LYR MOISTURE ACROSS 
SRN HALF OF FCST AREA. THE ETA IS STILL THE STRONGEST WITH SFC PRESS 
PTRN BUT ALL SHORT RANGE MDLS INDICATE JUST A GENERAL TROF THRU THE 
AREA. SIMILAR TO TODAY ECSB SHOULD MOVE IN RATHER QUICK N OF THE LOW 
LEVEL AXIS. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT AMT OF HEATING AND AM 
INCLINED TO KEEP POPS LWR THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND STAY W/ HIGH 
CHC VALUES.

MARINE...FORTUNATELY STATIONARY TROF LOCATION FITS REASONABLY WELL 
WITH MARINE AREAS. ONSHORE COMPONENT SHUD STILL DEVELOP S WATERS IN 
AFTN.

PRELIM....

DAB WB 088/074 089/073 090 05424
MCO TT 092/075 092/074 093 05545
MLB TT 089/075 089/074 090 05535=

.MLB...NONE.

BORZILLERI/BLOTTMAN 

000 
TTAA00 KMLB 040644
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
243 AM EDT WED AUG 4 1999

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION OVER CAPE CANAVERAL RAPIDLY DISSIPATING. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A WEAK LOW JSUT E
OF THE COAST AND IS WHAT PROBABLY KEPT ACTVTY CONTINUING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING.

TODAY...MODELS KEEP SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND DEEP
MOISTURE(OVER 2 INCHES PWATS) WILL REMAIN. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AGAIN TODAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS DOWN LIKE TUESDAY.
THE CLOUDS REALLY KEPT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOW ON TUESDAY AND WILL
LIKELY HAVE A SIMILAR AFFECT TODAY. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND MID
LEVEL TROF/SHEAR AXIS RIGHT THROUGH CENTRAL FL SHOULD RESULT IN
BETTER COVERAGE TODAY BUT WILL GO BELOW THE RATHER HIGH GUID POPS.
AGREE WITH MODELS IN HAVING HIGHEST POPS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS DUE
TO DEEPER MOISTURE. SFC TROF POSITION WILL FAVOR AN EARLY ECSB N OF
THE CAPE AND STEERING FLOW N OF AXIS WILL KEEP ACTVTY AWAY FM SHORE
IN AFTN. MAY WORD VOLUSIA CTY AS MAINLY INTERIOR PCPN.

TONIGHT AND THU...A NEARLY STATIONARY SFC THRU UPPER LEVEL
TROF/SHEAR AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL FL. MID LEVEL VRT AXIS
CONTINUES TO ELONGATE THRU 48 HRS AND WHILE NOT ASSOCIATED W/ LARGE
AMTS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE UVM OR MID LEVEL COOLING SHOULD FAVOR HIER
THAN CLIMO POPS. BOTH NGM/ETA INDICATE BEST DEEP LYR MOISTURE ACROSS
SRN HALF OF FCST AREA. THE ETA IS STILL THE STRONGEST WITH SFC PRESS
PTRN BUT ALL SHORT RANGE MDLS INDICATE JUST A GENERAL TROF THRU THE
AREA. SIMILAR TO TODAY ECSB SHOULD MOVE IN RATHER QUICK N OF THE LOW
LEVEL AXIS. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT AMT OF HEATING AND AM
INCLINED TO KEEP POPS LWR THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND STAY W/ HIGH
CHC VALUES.

MARINE...FORTUNATELY STATIONARY TROF LOCATION FITS REASONABLY WELL
WITH MARINE AREAS. ONSHORE COMPONENT SHUD STILL DEVELOP S WATERS IN
AFTN.

PRELIM....

DAB WB 088/074 089/073 090 05424
MCO TT 092/075 092/074 093 05545
MLB TT 089/075 089/074 090 05535=

.MLB...NONE.

BORZILLERI/BLOTTMAN