999 
FXUS63 KUNR 111638
AFDRAP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
930 AM MST MON JAN 11 1999

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY FM JUST NORTH OF 
LEMON TO NR PIR TO JUST E OF SFD. 12Z ANALYSIS INDC LOW LEVEL WINDS 
HAVE BECOME PARALLEL TO FRONTAL BOUNDRY AND WOULD SUGGEST FORWARD 
PROPAGATION HAS REACHED ITS LIMIT. AS ADVERTISED IN MODEL PROGS... 
SFC PRESS RISES ARE BEING SEEN OVER NE MT AND ND AS SFC HIGH BIGINS 
TO BUILD. LIKE MODEL SOLN OF LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY 
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING FRONT BACK ACROSS WRN SD AS A 
COLD FRONT. 12Z SOUNDING SUPPORTS HIGH TEMP OF 58 IN DOWNSLOPE 
REGION OF BLK HILLS UNDER WEST WINDS.  TEMP ADVEC SEEMS TO HAVE MET 
ITS MAX... BUT SOME SFC HEATING UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES COULD AID 
IN MIXING OF BOUNDRY LAYER. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON BASED 
ON ABOVE THINKING AND CLEANED UP AFTERNOON WORDING. 
.UNR...NONE.

SPECI KUNR 28011KT 15SM SCT100 SCT200 12/M01

MURPHY