224 
FXUS62 KMLB 070620
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
220 AM EDT WED OCT 7 1998

CURRENTLY...RATHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE COUNTRY WITH RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD PRODUCING
SLIGHTLY MORE GRADIENT FLOW THAN LAST NIGHT.  SATELLITE/MODEL THETA E
FIELDS INDICATE REMAINS OF BACKDOOR FRONT EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA.  SLOWING FRONT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  JUST A FEW
SHOWERS ON RADAR DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING ABOVE CLIMO.

DISCUSSION...THERE IS NOT A LOT OF DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS HANDLING
OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  SOUTHERN END OF FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES SOUTH TO ACROSS THE PENINSULA BY THURSDAY.

FOR TODAY I EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER COASTAL SECTIONS
AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR THE INTERIOR COUNTIES.  NGM POPS
LOOK WAY TOO HIGH AS ITS 6 AND 12 HOUR PRECIP FIELDS ARE NOT GOING
TO COME CLOSE TO VERIFYING...THE SAME FOR THE ETA.  THETA E FIELDS
SHOW SLIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST DRIFT OF WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT BUT DO NOT
FEEL THIS IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT GOOD CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS THAT THE
FWCS INDICATE.

LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO VEER TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT SO THE
CONVERGENCE LINES OFF THE BAHAMAS SHOULD ORIENT THEMSELVES MORE
TOWARDS THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST.  THEREFORE EXPECT A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN COASTAL POPS...WHICH IS ALREADY INDICATED IN THE CURRENT
PACKAGE.

BY THURSDAY THE WEAKENING FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE STATE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA.  MOISTURE NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE APPRECIABLY WITH
MODELS SHOWING JUST A SLIGHT LOWERING OF HEIGHTS.  BEST LIFT WILL
REMAIN NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOOK GOOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTH PART OF THE AREA SINCE
THERE MAY BEGIN TO BE SOME EFFECT FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

LASCODY