520 
FPUS03 KMLB 090714
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
230 AM EDT THU JUL 9 1998

RATHER STRONG W/SW SURFACE FLOW REGIME HAS RETURNED TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA...HOWEVER THIS TIME DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. UPPER
ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER TX REGION WITH EASTWARD EXTENSION TOWARD
FL...AS 500 MB TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD. 

BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGE RETREATING TO S FL AND FRONTAL TROUGH DROPPING
TO NEAR GA/FL BORDER...ETA PROGS 5 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT JAX-MIA LATE
TODAY-FRIDAY...WITH NGM A LITTLE LESS TODAY AND LITTLE MORE FRIDAY.
GRADIENT SHOULD BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
BOTH DAYS...RESTRICTING SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT N OF VRB AND HOLDING
BREEZE BOUNDARY TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST FARTHER S. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN DEEP WITH MEAN RH ABOVE 60 PERCENT AND PW ABOVE 2 INCHES.
GREATEST FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG INLAND MOVING WEST COAST
BREEZE AND LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. STEERING FLOW WILL FAVOR SLOW
EASTWARD MOTION TODAY AND SOUTHEAST FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH PROPAGATION
ALONG BOUNDARIES WILL BE DOMINANT AS USUAL FOR WET-SEASON. 

MOISTURE DEPTH SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUATION OF HIGH POPS...HOWEVER
SINCE INTERACTION OF EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES NOT
EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA LANDMASS
TODAY...COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT LESS THAN RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...SINCE
ACTUAL AREAL COVERAGES HAVE BEEN HIGHER THAN THE 50 PERCENT FORECAST
LAST SEVERAL DAYS...50 POP OK.

MOS MAX TEMPS LOOK TOO LOW CONSIDERING ONSET OF STRONGER OFFSHORE
FLOW. WITH LOW/MID 90S RECORDED ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY...MID TO
UPPER 90S SUGGESTED FOR TODAY. MAY EVEN SEE 100 ALONG COAST NORTH OF
CAPE IF CONVECTION HOLDS OFF TIL LATE. CURRENT RECORD HIGHS OF 95/96
FOR MLB/DAB LOOK TO BE IN JEOPARDY TODAY.

FIRE WX...SW WIND WILL PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE AND BECOME GUSTY. PREFER
STRONGER ETA WIND FORECAST NEAR 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATION OF 20 KT JUST
OFF THE SURFACE ON CAPE PROFILER. MOS ALSO LIKELY UNDERESTIMATING MAX
TEMPS FOR VOLUSIA/BREVARD COASTAL REGION FOR SW FLOW REGIME...PREFER
MID/UPPER 90S. MIN AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL BE 45-50 PERCENT
VOLUSIA/BREVARD. AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCE AROUND 50 PERCENT...BUT WITH
LACK OF EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED
RATHER THAN LAST FEW DAYS WHEN MAIN FOCUS WAS ALONG COAST.

SPRATT