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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDILM Product Timestamp: 1998-02-17 18:45 UTC
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534
FPUS03 KILM 181848
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
145 PM EST TUE FEB 17 1998
RAH/CAE: SKC TNGT W/MINS ARND 45 & W WIND 10 MPH. THU...INCG HI
CLDS W/MAXS OF MID 60S. CHC POP OK FOR LATE THU NGT W/HIEST S OF
ILM. CWF: LEANG TWD DUMPING SCA ESP SC SIDE. AGREE?. MGT NEED TO
HOLD ONTO IT FOR RUFF SEAS ON NC SIDE. W DIR BECMG SW DRNG THE DAY
ON THU. DTAILS BLO.
ZNS: SATL VIS IMAGERY HAD SCU MOVG ACRS CWA W/THICKEST CLD CVR OVER
INL AREAS. AS FNT/UPPER LVL TROF MOV THRU & HEATG LOST... SKC CONDS
WL BECOME A REALITY BY EVNG. BLYR WNDS LUK TO RELAX TO 10 MPH TNGT.
WK RDGG ON THU...BUT ANOTHER S/WV IN WRN TX THIS AFTN FCST TO MOV E
OPN GUD H250 JET (140 KTS) & ACRS THE GULF STAS ON THU. WK SFC LOW
DVLPS OVER GULF STAS ALG ADVANCG CD FNT. ALL MDLS SHOW FTRE GETTG
ABSORBED W/TIME AS IT MOVS FURTHER E. GARP SNDGS SHOW DEEPENG MSTR
PROFILE BY 42-48 HRS W/GULF GETTG PICKED UP BIT IN MID-UPPER. BEST LVLS
BUT BEST LIFT IS S OF ILM CWA. SOME OMEGA/THETA E ADVECTION DOES COME
INTO CWA. MRH ON ALL GUID SHOOTS TO 70-80% BY 48 HRS. POPS ARE WARRANTED
BUT NOT AS HIGH AS FWC SUGGESTS. OPTED FOR AN AVG OF FAN/FWC THIS
GO ARND. DON/T NEED ANY MORE RA AS MANY RVRS/CREEK ARE OUT OF THEIR
BANKS. FWC QPF LUKS OVERDONE. RA SHUD BE OUT OF THE RGN BY FRI AFTN.
TEMPS ON FRI WILL B DEPENDENT ON CLRG. NO REAL COLD AIR AS IT STAYS
CAN STAY THERE. GUID CLOSE THRU THU NGT. WL AVG FAN/FWC ON FRI AS
FAN LUKS A TAD HI ATTM. HI PRES BLDG IN FOR WKEND. WOO-HOO. FFA UP
FOR FLDG DUE TO WEAKENED DAM IN ROB CNTY. NICE JOB RAH/SQI ON HANDLG
THIS SITUATION.
CWF: 17Z RA1/MARINE OBS SHOWG 20-25 KTS W/SEAS STL RUNNG 6 OR SO.
ONCE TROF GOES BY...SPDS SHUD START TO COME DOWN W/THE LOSS OF THE
CAA. WL PLAY THAT RTE TNGT-THU. TRICKY THU NGT-FRI W/DIR. WL BK DIR
ARND TO SW THU NGT IN ADVANCE OF APCHG S/WV. FNT COMG ACRS THE RGN
ON FRI WL TURN DIR ARND TO WNW. NO FLAGS FORESEEN AFT TNGT.
CCFS: ILM 047/065 050/059 040 002
FLO 045/067 048/056 040 004
THANX TO BC/TTH(CAE) & RVT(MHX) FOR COORD. HAVE A FINE NGT.
JOE