948 
FPUS03 KICT 210828 
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
327 AM CDT MON JUL 21 1997

...SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR TODAY WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND 
TEMPERATURES.

THE LATEST SURFACE CHART SHOWED A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR HYS AND A
TROF EXTENDING SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA.  WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 
70S TO EAST OF THE TROF...THE CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A
WHILE IF NOT INTENSIFYING ONCE IT HITS THE MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
NEAR P28 AND ICT.

PREFERRED THE ETA MODEL THIS PACKAGE AS IT SEEMED TO HANDLE THE
CURRENT SITUATION SLIGHTLY BETTER.  THE PESKY LITTLE SPINNER HAS
FINALLY MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER...ANOTHER ONE HAS
TAKEN ITS PLACE AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE STATE TODAY.  WITH THIS BEING THE CASE...I WILL CARRY SMALLER
POPS NORTH AND HIGHER POPS SOUTHEAST.  THIS MORNINGS PRECIP SHOULD
BE THE LAST SHOT FOR THE CENTRAL SECTIONS...BUT WITH SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A THUNDER
BOOMER ERUPTED.  SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO ADVECT 
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT H8.  BUT WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS I 
WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE.

CHANCE

...LONG TERM...
CURRENT FCST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...JUST A FEW TWEAKS...MAINLY TO TAP
MON NITE LOWS UPWARD AND A SMALL POP ON TUE.  BOUNDARY TO BE
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MO ACROSS ERN KS (JUST SOUTH OF I-70) AND
THEN BACK NW TO LBF.  VORT MAX WHICH IS SLIDING ACROSS SRN KS TODAY
IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE OVER SE KS/NE OK AND SRN MO THIS EVENING.
SO COULD SEE SOMETHING IN ERN SC KS AND SE KS AROUND SUNSET.  AS FOR
CENTRAL KS...WRN NEBRASKA LOOKS AS IF THEY MAY SEE A MCS DEVELOP NR
THE PANHANDLE AND WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND BOUNDARY EXTENDING BACK
INTO CENTRAL KS...COULD SEE SOMETHING MOVE SE INTO CENTRAL KS LATE
TONIGHT. BOTTOM LINE IS WE COULD SEE SOMETHING JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
...THETA-E RIDGE IS POOLING ACROSS KS ALONG AND SOUTH OF SFC
BOUNDARY...H20 VAPOR SHOWING A TROPICAL CONNECTION INTO KS AS
MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES UP OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS AND ACROSS CO.
TUESDAY...MAY SEE SOME MORNING DEBRIS AS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
EXTEND FROM WRN KS TO SE KS...BUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND ANY
LINGERING BOUNDARIES COULD SEE MAINLY LATE AFTN TSRA BUBBLE UP.

NOONAN 

RSL 089/066 090/066     15332
SLN 089/069 090/070     15832
ICT 088/072 091/071 092 15832
HUT 088/070 090/070     15332
CNU 087/072 089/071     15831