316 
FPUS03 KILM 200458
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1256 AM EDT SUN APR 20 1997

5H S/W TO MUV OFF THE CAROLINA CST ARND 12Z. SFC BNDRY TO SLOLY SINK
TO THE SOUTH DURG THESE ERLY MORNG HRS...THERE4 PCPN SHULD BE OVERWITH
BY SUN-UP WITH ONLY RESIDUAL CLDS ERLY GIVING WAY TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
NEXT MID-LVL DISTURBANCE TO AFFECT ILM CWA LATE MON INTO MON NITE.
FLOW IN LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL HAVE AMPLIFIED ENUF BY MON NITE WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TAPPED RATHER THAN RELYING ON ITS OWN DYNAMICS LIKE
PREDECESSORDID. THERE4 POPS NEEDED FOR MON AFTN AND MON NITE.

TEMPS...NOT MUCH CAA IN THE WAKE OF THIS S/W...WILL TEND TO STAY AT OR A
CAT ABOVE MAX FWC TODAY. BETTR ORGANIZED WAA AHEAD OF NEXT S/W WILL BRING
TEMPS TO FWC MAXES FOR MON PER VARIOUS THICNESSES AND 8H TEMP PROG INCREASES.
FWC MIN GUIDANCE ON THE BALL. THINK FAN GUIDANCE THRU MON A BIT TOO LOW.

CWF...CULD GO WITH NW BECMNG VARIABLE TODAY AT 10-15KT. LACK OF PG AFTR
S/W PASSAGE. VARIABLE BECMG S OVRNITE 10-15KT. S 10-15 KT BECMG SW 20.
SOME DISCREPENCIES ON STRENGTH OF SFC FEATURES BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR
MON. THERE4 JUST COMPROMISED FOR NOW.

ILM BB 072/048 079/058 074 -02
FLO BE 075/047 080/055 075 -03

HOEHLER