592 
FPUS03 KGRI 140832
AFDGRI

CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
230 AM CST FRI FEB 14 1997

...TROF PASSAGE AND POPS IN 2ND AND 3RD PERIODS THE MAIN FORECAST
   CHALLENGE...

   SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CWA LOOKING A LOT LIKE
A WARM FRONT AT H85 WITH NEAR ZERO TEMPERATURES AT LBF/RAP THIS EVE.
THIS BRINGING ALONG SOME MID CLOUDS THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA ATTM PER
SATELLITE SHOTS.  FOG HAS BEEN PATCHY AND LOCALLY DENSE NEAR LXN BUT
NOT REALLY ANYPLACE ELSE.  SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TURN TO 
NORTHWEST AS TROF PASSES TO EAST.  

   SUNSHINE SHOULD MAKE A MORE TRIUMPHANT RETURN TODAY TO MOST OF CWA
BUT INTERMITTANT CLOUDS WILL YIELD A PARTLY SUNNY DAY.  TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW AND SUNSHINE. 
32 DEGREES AT VALENTINE AT 07Z BEHIND TROF.  HIGHER MOISTURE SEEN ON 
H2OV LOOP INTO MONTANA AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.  ALL THREE MODELS SHOW
INCREASE IN MOISTURE TONIGHT YIELDING AN INCREASING CLOUDY SKY. SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN AT 284/288 LEVELS TONIGHT BUT PRESSURE DEFICITS
DO NOT DROP TIL CLOSER TO DAWN.  FEEL CURRNET 20 PERCENT POPS IN 
NEBRASKA COULD BE TRIMMED TO LATE NIGHT FLURRIES AS ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS EXPECTED. 
  
   A CLOUDY SKY SATURDAY WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A TAD FROM
TODAYS FORECAST READINGS.  AVN PUSHES SOME DECENT DIFF. PVA INTO AREA
BY MID MORNING ALONG WITH H7 WAVE/VVEL.  LOW LEVEL QVECT PUSH ON ETA
IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF CWA.  THOUGH MOISTURE LIMITED - THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
GET MORE ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST.  RESULT WILL BE FLURRIES OR 
A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW.  MAIN TIME FRAME IN NEBRASKA TO BE LATE MORNING
AND ENDING SHORTLY THEREAFTER.  LOOK TO CONTINUE ALREADY GOING SMALL
POPS IN NEBRASKA.  NOTE - THIS IS ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF VERY MINOR
SNOW EVENTS.  NOT A BIG DEAL.   

   AVN WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN OTHER MODELS AND REALLY GETS THIS
SATURDAY SYSTEM GOING BY 48HRS.  ALL MODEL SIMILAR ENUF FOR SPLIT
FLOW TRENDS BUT FEEL A COMPROMISE LEANING TOWARD THE AVN WAS BETTER
CHOICE THIS MORNING.  ETA LOOKS WARM AT H85 AND NGM TOO COLD BASED
ON YESTERDAYS FINAL TEMPERATURES. 

   GENERALLY FOLLOWED NEAR COOLER FWC GUIDANCE VALUES THROUGH THE 
PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL REBOUND DESPITE SNOW COVER.  ORD MADE 35 YESTERDAY WITH
LIMITED SUN AND NORTH PLATTE 38 WITH A FRESH 3 SNOW.  TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 FOR THE REGION AS CLOUDS
INCREASE.  SATURDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY WITH CLOUDY SKY AS
GOING FORECAST REFLECTS....................................MORITZ
  
GRI BM 038/019/035 0-3
HBR BM 038/020/035 0-3
ODX BM 039/019/033 0-2
BLT BM 039/021/036 002
LXN BM 040/019/038 0-3